Nice rebound

Nice rebound
TRID - nada. But Circuit City announced and said that Flat panel TVs drove sales through the roof. Umm, hello. That's TRID sales too, because they dominate the market for chips in those TVs
TIE - Up to $52 in afterhours. I got lucky and bought in yesterday at $49.
STX - Up 1%. Every little bit helps
MRVL - nada. But at least they stayed positive most of the day (hey, am I reaching here?)
MDR, JOYG, JLG - Soft except for JOYG. JLG sunk 6% at opening only to rebound. But they are all near their highs, so this is noise to me
GHL, GRP - down a bit. Noise
CELG - Nice jump on DNA news
PCP - Hey, massive jump
SNDK - YAY! Huge jump. Welcome to the S&P
PWR - Wow, helluva nice jump.

So no real drops after a lackluster day and some nice healthy moves. I like buying opportunities

Interesting Day Ahead

The market will start positive because of perceived buying opportunities. Folks will have entered buy orders for the opening

Then there will be testing and the market may dip. I expect drifting, but this is sheer silliness.
Reality will have a hard time penetrating the market. I'm not a betting man, but I would expect a major market move at the end: either up or down. If the market has been soft all day, I would see buying at the end.

The impact of MS Vista's delay is showing up in softer sales by Micron (DRAM makers), but I don't know if this will translate to softer hard drive sales (STX and MRVL). SNDK and TRID are not affected.

Diversification and me

Another sign of quality analysis aka closing the barn door after the horse is out.
CIBC said that Alcoa will Outperform. I wonder what tipped them off? The stellar earnings that came out yesterday?

So many analysts are sooooo useless.
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It has been pointed out to me that I am not very diversified in the LIVEROCKET model portfolio. And it's true: we are incredibly heavy in high tech and commodities.

It's like the famous saying: I rob banks because that's where the money is. I invest in sectors where the money is.

According to Valueline, the top performing industries for the past month are:
Steel - Nope
Oil services/equipment - yep (GRP, JLG, MDR, JOYG)
Power - nope
Paper - nope
Petroleum - nope
Electrical Equipment - not really

Instead of steel we have titanium, which has outperformed the 15% return by almsot 2x
Power - JLG is related and so is MDR (JLG for coal burning power plant equipment, MDR for uranium)
Paper/Electrical Equipment/Petroleum - nope
(Btw notice how commodities are so dominant)

On the plus side, we have avoided all of the bottom performing sectors.

Taking Stock (pun intended)

Why do I feel so positive about the market after it has fallen almost 2% in the last week?

First, this is just profit taking. After all, virtually every sector got clobbered, not just a particular sector.
Second, the activity was actually pretty light. I pay attention when stocks move on heavy volume because of underlying support (or lack thereof). Most stocks traded on weak averages - hence, I call it profit taking.
Here's a sampling of what I mean:

CELL – Down 4% on average volume
JBLU – Yikes. I’d like to buy if they hit <$9.9. Oil is hurting them, but Delta is losing business due to potential strike.
NUAN – Down <1% on 75% average volume
SNDK – Up 1.5% on 1.3x average volume
AKAM – Up 4% on large volume
WCC – Flat on average volume
WIRE – Down 3% on average volume
WSO – Down .5% on 1.5x average volume
GILD – Down 2.4% on 80% average volume
PCP – Up on average volume
PWR – Down 3.5% on 2x average volume
BMHC – Down 4% on 80% average volume
CELG – Down 5% on 1.5x average volume


ET – Down 2% on 67% average volume
GHL – Down 1% on 80% average volume
GRP – Down 0.7% on 96% average volume
JLG – Down 3.7% on Average volume
JOYG – Down 1.8% on 80% average volume
MDR – no change on 85% average volume
MRVL – Down 3% on average volume. I don't like the weakness, but the technicals look set to improve.
NTRI – Down 3% on 40% average volume
STX – Flat on 60% average volume
TEVA – Down 2% on 2x average volume. This is beaten down, but watch pharma come back. Still, I don't think it fits our portfolio for the long term
TIE – Down 4% on average volume
TRID – Down 3% on 1.3x average volume

I think that the buys I like are:
TRID - Wow, 600+ P/E. Yeah, but they are growing 800% Y/Y. If they hit this month's earnings target, that's a 57 P/E AFTER JUST ONE QUARTER. That's what I love about companies whose earnings are soaring - the P/E collapses really fast. For example, in the June quarter (assuming that they hit their target P/E), TRID will have a P/E of 36. Want me to continue? But I think that they will blow out the quarter based on the obvious strength of Flat Panel TVs (Best Buy, Circuit City and LG have all said - Flat Panel TVs are incredibly popular and prices are flat, not down). With Circuit City reporting tomorrow, I added to my TRID holdings.
TIE - Yeah, buy on the dips. This was ~$54 last week, now it's $49. A month ago it was $40. Two months ago it was $35. These guys are printing money, so what if there's profit taking every once in a while. There is trouble with competitors (the Russian Ti maker is having issues). Boeing is hopefully going to announce new sales to China. Oh, and Alcoa showed that there is amazing strength in commodities. And supply shortages are getting worse.
NTRI - Hmmm, barely any trading. Sounds like folks want to hold onto their shares.
STX - Ok, I see strength here. Check out the rebounding technicals.
MRVL - I like them for the long term. In the short term, who knows why they are flatter than Broadcom.
MDR, JOYG, JLG - Nothing wrong here. I love the way MDR looks btw.
GRP - Down when oil looks so strong. What is wrong here???
GHL - Holding strong.
CELG - After Genentech's studly report, these guys could jump
PCP - Check them out. Winners and looking solid
SNDK - Check out the improving fundamentals.
PWR - This one is in my IRA. I've made 70% on them in the last 8 months. They are the company hired to lay optical and electrical cable. They just announced that they expect to beat earnings expectations. They have a 48 P/E if they meet expectations. Like TRID, they are experiencing incredible growth and maintaining it.

Market is down today - Here's why

Inflation fears = interest rate hikes = slower economy

With gas prices surging and commodities strong (Alcoa), CPI will have to move up. Consumer Confidence reports this week should bring a spell of positive news.

In the meantime, this is a big buying day and I am loading up.

Also, for TIE specifics, notice the following

* TIE and 20 day MA. TIE hugs its 20 day moving average, which is $50. It got away from it, and it’s coming back. Note the resistance below $50.
* Alcoa. If Alcoa is doing well, imagine what is going on with TIE.
* Boeing. With a visit by China’s Premier next week, China is bringing gifts. A big one will be major plane orders. If that happens, TIE will surge

Ups and Downs & Alcoa

Following on Friday's dip, more profit taking but after Alcoa's stunning results, I expect a big jump Tuesday.

STOCKS I FOLLOW OR OWN
AKAM - Overbought and just settling down where it needs to be
CELL - Down 3% and then a 6% jump in after hours
NUAN - Up. They are staying above 11 an dI like that
SNDK - Down 3%. Yeah, I never unloaded. I must like pain.

OUR PORTFOLIO
GHL - Up 3% today and set a new 52 week high
GRP - up 2%
JOYG - Up 3%
MRVL - Down 2.5%. There are rumors that MRVL will underperform
NTRI - Down 2%. I don't like the weakness here, but I respect the stock.
STX - Down 2.5%. Weakness that I expect to turnaround.
TEVA - Continuing weakness. It's oversold, but I see us taking our money and running soon. Maybe Genentech will help add some bounce.
TIE - If Alcoa goes up, how can TIE be far behind. Also, I expect China to announce some new Boeing purchases, which will drive additional titanium demand.