Friday, November 16, 2007

Buying in today

I think today may be the day to buy
1. Options pressure at the greatest
2. Next week is a holiday week - decisions to buy/sell made this week.
3. 6 weeks until quarter end - bad news and good news will be leaking out in the next few weeks. I think mostly good news will be heard for the infrastructure and global stocks. Mostly bad news for the US economy. As sector specific good news emerges, I would expect the stocks to begin to move up

NUAN - Earnings beat but we're stopped out

Like it says - NUAN slammed earnings but...it has slid

Thursday, November 15, 2007

Where to go from here

Apologies for being AWOL - much too much going on the past few weeks.

I sold a lot a few days ago. I still believe beinglong in the market but I felt that traders were going to push us down. Indeed, 2 days ago things lookde to have bottomed out but I didn't want to get back in yet because it felt more like a dead cat bounce. Certainly the Wednesday retreat seemed to feel like the other side of a sucker's rally.

Th ebottom is basically in. While I don't think prices will dip much more, I do think another bad day could emerge.
So it's a matter of timing re-entry, really (and picking the right targets). I continue to believe that late November will see a bit of a rally as funds move back in to secure a spot before the quarter ends and earnings releases begin anew.

Between now and then some dips and rises could happen.
Thursday: CPI release today as well as jobless claims. Both may spark a rally if they leave room for the Fed to cut. I feel that the unemployment rate is being under reported, so a surprise here is possible. I also think the CPI excluding food/oil is stable.
Friday: option expiration. Things are down so low, that there is no pressure on anyone to cover positions.

I did some moves a few weeks ago when things were interesting. I bought a bunch of IO. That worked out all right. DRYS wsa a complete fiasco. I was hoping it would drop more and we would buy back in. Lets watch and see.

I am up late and looking at stock picks. I made more misses than hits lately. The TIE/TRID decisions were wrong. I thought we'd see life and we didn't.

My next moves will be very much geared to increasing results and locking in gains.

Monday, November 12, 2007

Cashing out

Selling the following
DRYS 84.43
FWLT 140.8
NOV 65.76

Get out of almost everything.
Expect China to buy in soon, but not for a while