Reviewing the situation

It's been 2 months since I posted the portfolio (sorry) so I'll do that this weekend. It does not look good but I am actually feeling very positive.

Bearish positions are improving:
* Ultrashorts are rebounding. This is 25% of the portfolio, so continued weakness in the markets will move these up nicely
* Puts are rebounding a bit. This is now ~20% of the portfolio but has more potential impact given the leverage. I think AN, HOG, & NKE may pull through for us. ZLC and VMC are showing just too much resistance.
* DUG is up big. I wrote covered calls at $40 (instead of selling at $39.50). This may get exercised.

ETFC excepted, long positions are close to worthless. The calls alone created a massive $12K+ loss.

My mistakes the last 2 months are strategic and tactical.
Strategic: getting into commodities. I interpreted the July drop as a pullback when it was the start of the crash. My analysis of the fundamentals is correct (these companies are incredibly profitable and will remain so). But the point is that the market does not think so.

Tactical: Removing my STOP loss. It is there for a reason and I have not applied it twice: once to ensure the Puts yielded maximum return in July and again when the calls started to drop. STOPs are there for me to lock in gains and limit the downside, and by temporarily abandoning this critical tool, I am facing a loss this year. I can only hope tha tthe Puts yield some golden fruit. Next month is critical.