In addition to picking stocks, I also pursued a short term strategy of buying some stocks the last time the market crashed. I will visit my strategy, both the short term acquisitions and the sector focus, in a different blog post
A brief re-cap of earnings performance
AMX – They missed. Their operating income soared 45%. The non-cash events like accelerating depreciation are what crashed their net income. That was a deliberate move to phase out old equipment and I don’t care. I am focused on the 2M new subscribers.
1 Month Yield: Down 10% (excluding 1 $1.87 dividend)
Conclusion: still growing strong and worth buying on weakness (<$60) CLB – We sold early (an accident on my part). CLB is going from strength to strength. They beat earnings expectations and raised guidance. 1 Month Yield: Up 10% Conclusion: We need to get back in DRYS – They slightly beat expectations for both sales and earnings (I’m excluding the one-time sale of a vessel). Their income/profit is 100% dependent on spot market rates, and those rates are dropping. The reason: Chinese steel importers may be slowing activity. The core question: is this a short term or long term situation? 1 Month Yield: Irrelevant . We're down 20% Conclusion: Patience FWLT – Earnings up 70% and beat expectations by ~25%. We made the right move to dump MDR and shift to FWLT 1 Month Yield: Up 7% HOLX – They beat both Sales and Earnings expectations. In fact, they crushed earnings expectations ($0.58 vs $0.47). However, they gave lowered guidance. Conclusion: Still a growth stock but I have concerns. Wait before buying. 1 Month Yield: Down 6% IMA – They beat both sales and earnings expectations. They also continue their acquisition binge. I think they are going to build themselves into a major conglomerate to rival companies like P&G. That makes for a tasty acquisition downstream. 1 Month Yield: Up 5% Conclusion: Sit tight IO – Earnings today were solid, as long as you allow some flexibility. Specifically, a large payment won’t be recognized this quarter, so the earnings are lumpy. They’ll miss this quarter and beat next. I bought expecting a short term rise and it happened – but I didn’t sell due to my travels. 1 Month Yield: Down 7% Conclusion: Company is still in the right place and we’ll wait. MICC – Earnings up 160% on strong sales. Subscribers jumped 77% to 20M. 1 Month Yield: Up 20% Conclusion: Buy more N OV – Great earnings. Doubled YoY and beat expectations by ~10%. Feels poised for a run after lingering for a few weeks. There is no slowdown in the demand for drilling rigs. 1 Month Yield: Down 10% Conclusion: Buy more NUAN – No earnings yet, but it just touched its DMA. It will bounce off 1 Month Yield: Flat Conclusion: Buy more PCP – Still going strong, with potential to take advantage of competitor’s weakness. 1 Month Yield: Up 1% TIE – We were stopped out. We could buy back in and play them as a trading stock, but I think we should just move on. TRID – What can I say: they are doing fine and the market disagrees. They keep dropping and I plan to buy more when I see them bottom. They are currently trading for cash plus $2 (~$110M). As an FYI, they are expected to sell $350M. Charts show massive oversold, but it continues to bleed. I’ll wait until there is no more blood and jump in.
TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
AMX – Weakness everywhere and I don’t see a sign of recovery. Under the 50/100 DMA and approaching the 200DMA (~$57). AMX has only touched its 200 DMA twice in the last 2 years, it typically hugs the 100 DMA. The 100 DMA is ~$63
CLB – Only strength.
DRYS – They always trade above their 50 DMA although they sometimes approach it – like now.
FWLT – Although the stock price has moved up, the technicals are actually trending down.
HOLX – Weak technicals
IMA – technicals are strong. They are trading a bit too high above their moving averages.
IO – technicals are weak.
MICC – Technicals are super strong, and the price is a bit ahead of itself relative to its DMA.
NOV – I like these technicals. The price is jumping off its DMA. The MACD was down and has started to trend back up.
NUAN – They have just returned to their DMA, where they usually bounce off hard.
PCP – Solid technicals
