Earnings Wrap – What worked and what didn’t
In addition to picking stocks, I also pursued a short term strategy of buying some stocks the last time the market crashed. I will visit my strategy, both the short term acquisitions and the sector focus, in a different blog post
A brief re-cap of earnings performance
AMX – They missed. Their operating income soared 45%. The non-cash events like accelerating depreciation are what crashed their net income. That was a deliberate move to phase out old equipment and I don’t care. I am focused on the 2M new subscribers.
1 Month Yield: Down 10% (excluding 1 $1.87 dividend)
Conclusion: still growing strong and worth buying on weakness (<$60) CLB – We sold early (an accident on my part). CLB is going from strength to strength. They beat earnings expectations and raised guidance. 1 Month Yield: Up 10% Conclusion: We need to get back in DRYS – They slightly beat expectations for both sales and earnings (I’m excluding the one-time sale of a vessel). Their income/profit is 100% dependent on spot market rates, and those rates are dropping. The reason: Chinese steel importers may be slowing activity. The core question: is this a short term or long term situation? 1 Month Yield: Irrelevant . We're down 20% Conclusion: Patience FWLT – Earnings up 70% and beat expectations by ~25%. We made the right move to dump MDR and shift to FWLT 1 Month Yield: Up 7% HOLX – They beat both Sales and Earnings expectations. In fact, they crushed earnings expectations ($0.58 vs $0.47). However, they gave lowered guidance. Conclusion: Still a growth stock but I have concerns. Wait before buying. 1 Month Yield: Down 6% IMA – They beat both sales and earnings expectations. They also continue their acquisition binge. I think they are going to build themselves into a major conglomerate to rival companies like P&G. That makes for a tasty acquisition downstream. 1 Month Yield: Up 5% Conclusion: Sit tight IO – Earnings today were solid, as long as you allow some flexibility. Specifically, a large payment won’t be recognized this quarter, so the earnings are lumpy. They’ll miss this quarter and beat next. I bought expecting a short term rise and it happened – but I didn’t sell due to my travels. 1 Month Yield: Down 7% Conclusion: Company is still in the right place and we’ll wait. MICC – Earnings up 160% on strong sales. Subscribers jumped 77% to 20M. 1 Month Yield: Up 20% Conclusion: Buy more N OV – Great earnings. Doubled YoY and beat expectations by ~10%. Feels poised for a run after lingering for a few weeks. There is no slowdown in the demand for drilling rigs. 1 Month Yield: Down 10% Conclusion: Buy more NUAN – No earnings yet, but it just touched its DMA. It will bounce off 1 Month Yield: Flat Conclusion: Buy more PCP – Still going strong, with potential to take advantage of competitor’s weakness. 1 Month Yield: Up 1% TIE – We were stopped out. We could buy back in and play them as a trading stock, but I think we should just move on. TRID – What can I say: they are doing fine and the market disagrees. They keep dropping and I plan to buy more when I see them bottom. They are currently trading for cash plus $2 (~$110M). As an FYI, they are expected to sell $350M. Charts show massive oversold, but it continues to bleed. I’ll wait until there is no more blood and jump in. TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
AMX – Weakness everywhere and I don’t see a sign of recovery. Under the 50/100 DMA and approaching the 200DMA (~$57). AMX has only touched its 200 DMA twice in the last 2 years, it typically hugs the 100 DMA. The 100 DMA is ~$63
CLB – Only strength.
DRYS – They always trade above their 50 DMA although they sometimes approach it – like now.
FWLT – Although the stock price has moved up, the technicals are actually trending down.
HOLX – Weak technicals
IMA – technicals are strong. They are trading a bit too high above their moving averages.
IO – technicals are weak.
MICC – Technicals are super strong, and the price is a bit ahead of itself relative to its DMA.
NOV – I like these technicals. The price is jumping off its DMA. The MACD was down and has started to trend back up.
NUAN – They have just returned to their DMA, where they usually bounce off hard.
PCP – Solid technicals
A brief re-cap of earnings performance
AMX – They missed. Their operating income soared 45%. The non-cash events like accelerating depreciation are what crashed their net income. That was a deliberate move to phase out old equipment and I don’t care. I am focused on the 2M new subscribers.
1 Month Yield: Down 10% (excluding 1 $1.87 dividend)
Conclusion: still growing strong and worth buying on weakness (<$60) CLB – We sold early (an accident on my part). CLB is going from strength to strength. They beat earnings expectations and raised guidance. 1 Month Yield: Up 10% Conclusion: We need to get back in DRYS – They slightly beat expectations for both sales and earnings (I’m excluding the one-time sale of a vessel). Their income/profit is 100% dependent on spot market rates, and those rates are dropping. The reason: Chinese steel importers may be slowing activity. The core question: is this a short term or long term situation? 1 Month Yield: Irrelevant . We're down 20% Conclusion: Patience FWLT – Earnings up 70% and beat expectations by ~25%. We made the right move to dump MDR and shift to FWLT 1 Month Yield: Up 7% HOLX – They beat both Sales and Earnings expectations. In fact, they crushed earnings expectations ($0.58 vs $0.47). However, they gave lowered guidance. Conclusion: Still a growth stock but I have concerns. Wait before buying. 1 Month Yield: Down 6% IMA – They beat both sales and earnings expectations. They also continue their acquisition binge. I think they are going to build themselves into a major conglomerate to rival companies like P&G. That makes for a tasty acquisition downstream. 1 Month Yield: Up 5% Conclusion: Sit tight IO – Earnings today were solid, as long as you allow some flexibility. Specifically, a large payment won’t be recognized this quarter, so the earnings are lumpy. They’ll miss this quarter and beat next. I bought expecting a short term rise and it happened – but I didn’t sell due to my travels. 1 Month Yield: Down 7% Conclusion: Company is still in the right place and we’ll wait. MICC – Earnings up 160% on strong sales. Subscribers jumped 77% to 20M. 1 Month Yield: Up 20% Conclusion: Buy more N OV – Great earnings. Doubled YoY and beat expectations by ~10%. Feels poised for a run after lingering for a few weeks. There is no slowdown in the demand for drilling rigs. 1 Month Yield: Down 10% Conclusion: Buy more NUAN – No earnings yet, but it just touched its DMA. It will bounce off 1 Month Yield: Flat Conclusion: Buy more PCP – Still going strong, with potential to take advantage of competitor’s weakness. 1 Month Yield: Up 1% TIE – We were stopped out. We could buy back in and play them as a trading stock, but I think we should just move on. TRID – What can I say: they are doing fine and the market disagrees. They keep dropping and I plan to buy more when I see them bottom. They are currently trading for cash plus $2 (~$110M). As an FYI, they are expected to sell $350M. Charts show massive oversold, but it continues to bleed. I’ll wait until there is no more blood and jump in. TECHNICAL OVERVIEW
AMX – Weakness everywhere and I don’t see a sign of recovery. Under the 50/100 DMA and approaching the 200DMA (~$57). AMX has only touched its 200 DMA twice in the last 2 years, it typically hugs the 100 DMA. The 100 DMA is ~$63
CLB – Only strength.
DRYS – They always trade above their 50 DMA although they sometimes approach it – like now.
FWLT – Although the stock price has moved up, the technicals are actually trending down.
HOLX – Weak technicals
IMA – technicals are strong. They are trading a bit too high above their moving averages.
IO – technicals are weak.
MICC – Technicals are super strong, and the price is a bit ahead of itself relative to its DMA.
NOV – I like these technicals. The price is jumping off its DMA. The MACD was down and has started to trend back up.
NUAN – They have just returned to their DMA, where they usually bounce off hard.
PCP – Solid technicals
posted by Andrew at
7:07 PM
1 Comments:
You forgot to mention anything in the OIL sector …you sold your DO position?
So...the rising prices in OIL/Metals do not necessarily help their margins if you look at some of the results in the metals and OIL sector.one reason may be they have long term fixed price contract with their clients and any increase in raw material price they have to spend from their pockets . (TIE/RTI/ATI- XON/VLO)...: but drilling services are the exception. RIG-GSF is turned out to be good play which I mentioned previously in your blog.
DRYS –keep going down …but it gave me the chance to sell it at $127 the price I bought it. This stock is a gamble...but I will buy it again at the low despite the rumors that china readying their oil tanker ships to carry the iron ores and bargaining hard now for the shipment prices with drybulk shippers.
NUAN- I am not a great fan of Automated Voice support...it’s very dumb and irritating. AT&T automated voice support is a nightmare...but this stock might jump if someone buys it for whatever reason.
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