Brief review of stocks we have and others we like

AKAM - Softening a bit - down 5% from its high. Their revenue for existing customers is fairly predictable. The unknowns are the new customers. I like them, but it's understandable why they are softening after a 35% climb in 2 months. And they are weakening on pretty strong volume.

ET - Up ~2% on strong volume. hit a new 52 week high.

GHL - down 2.7% (before bouncing back in after hour trading). Expected after Barron's article.

GRP - Down 1.4%, mostly on overall softening of oil prices due to higher inventories and potential resolution of the Iranian crisis. I don't like the way this stock tracks oil and gas stocks. I had analyzed and seen much less of a direct relationship, but I may have been wrong. We'll see.

JBLU - Don't let the 3.5% drop today fool you. Forget that it fell on a day when oil prices eased and that should have been a positive. JBLU really wants to go up. After hitting a 52 week low 4 weeks ago, it has rebounded and is nesting around $11~$12. The underlying strength comes from basic business: new flights are being added and competitors are falling away. Long term the trends are only positive. Short term - the market is not liking the stock.

JLG - Up 5% today on 3X average volume. They hit a new 52 week high. I don't see any particular news. Possibly institutions adding after last week's great earnings.

JOYG - Down 1.7%. I see softness here ahead of earnings release March 1st. With a dividend payout in 3+ weeks, I want to wait a bit. But the company is still down only 5% from it's high. We got out at $53 and it's just above $54.

MDR - Flat. Pre-earnings jitters. While it's up from our exit price and I love this stock, I still am not sure the insertion point has arrived. We exited at $47 and it's at $51.

Marvell - flat. It wants to go up, but it can't. With a PEG <1, this stock is a bargain. The pause before another run.

NTRI - Up 2.5% on solid volume. We have recovered a great deal of lost ground - up 20% since last week. I also like the bid sizes. They hit a new 52 week high. There is strong demand. For everyone who kept the faith and to thos ewho bought in around $42 or less, thanks for the vote of confidence.

NUAN - I like their story. I like their uniqueness and growth strategy. They hit a 52 week high.

SNDK - up 8% on strong volume. We exited at $59 last week after watching the lack of institutional love. I love this company, but we shouldn't ignore concerns about current pricing pressures.

STX - Up 2% on soft volume. This company is still a screaming buy. I just had to replace my iPOD (piece of crap lasted 2 years before dying from very light use and careful treatment). Here's the problem - I have to upgrade my PC to accomodate all the songs and video that I want to put on this 60GB beast. STX wins because I buy their hard drive when I buy iPODs and they win when I go out and upgrade my PC's hard drive.

TEVA - Up 1.3%. I like the long term prospects. I also detect some strength. But they are not growing fast enough for LiveRocket.

TIE - Down 2%. Continuing a slight pull back after racing up 10% in the last week.

TRID - Up 1% on light volume.

WSO - This stock is next on our list to buy. They are a heating and air conditioning company. The dominate a very fractured market with 7% of the US market. I like the slow steady growth and the margin advantages of consolidation.

Stocks I own or watch

LiveRocket is a fairly conservative portfolio with a limited number of stocks.
My personal portfolio is larger and also includes the following stocks:
GILD
CELL
JOYG
MDR
SNDK
NUAN
TEVA
WCC
WIRE
WSO
Apple Jan 2007 Puts
BMHC Sept 2006 puts

At any time, I consider adding these stocks to the portfolio.

Barron's and GHL

Last week (feb 19th) I discussed why I like GHL over LAZ. Let me repeat what I wrote when comparing GHL and LAZ:

"* EPS is forecast much higher: 80% vs 50%
* Sales growth is forecast to be higher: 48% vs 32%
* EPS upside is much higher: analyst ranges call for up to 150% growth vs 65%

Here is what I see:GHL was founded by former Morgan Stanley’s top bankers. This is a trend: big brokerages are losing all of their top talent to boutique shops where the ownership opportunities (and upside) is much higher). Greenhill is one such boutique.
Margins are up 5.2% y/y, 10% q/q. Sales are growing 50%, current PE is 42, and earnings grew 70%. Revenue and earnings are accelerating."

Barron's is right up to a point. GHL is valued much more than LAZ. And there are great reasons why:
LAZ is losing sales (down 14%) whereas GHL is doubling
LAZ is sitting on a mountain of debt almost equal to it's sales ($1.2B). GHL is debt free
LAZ has a lower margin (30% vs 40% for GHL)
LAZ is built on disgruntled employees. GHL is building with excited employees. GHL is cherry picking its team.

It's the classic small cap vs big cap valuation.
The small cap company is growing almost 2X so.....it's P/E is 2X.
And $100M in upside means a hell of a lot more to GHL than it does to LAZ.

At the moment LAZ is playing in many big deals - Time Warner & Disney, for example.
GHL deals are smaller but notable: Maytag, 7-11.

I am assessing that there will be plenty of deals sloshing around.
Plus, there is a reason why bankers are valuing one of their own this highly.