Monday, February 27, 2006

Brief review of stocks we have and others we like

AKAM - Softening a bit - down 5% from its high. Their revenue for existing customers is fairly predictable. The unknowns are the new customers. I like them, but it's understandable why they are softening after a 35% climb in 2 months. And they are weakening on pretty strong volume.

ET - Up ~2% on strong volume. hit a new 52 week high.

GHL - down 2.7% (before bouncing back in after hour trading). Expected after Barron's article.

GRP - Down 1.4%, mostly on overall softening of oil prices due to higher inventories and potential resolution of the Iranian crisis. I don't like the way this stock tracks oil and gas stocks. I had analyzed and seen much less of a direct relationship, but I may have been wrong. We'll see.

JBLU - Don't let the 3.5% drop today fool you. Forget that it fell on a day when oil prices eased and that should have been a positive. JBLU really wants to go up. After hitting a 52 week low 4 weeks ago, it has rebounded and is nesting around $11~$12. The underlying strength comes from basic business: new flights are being added and competitors are falling away. Long term the trends are only positive. Short term - the market is not liking the stock.

JLG - Up 5% today on 3X average volume. They hit a new 52 week high. I don't see any particular news. Possibly institutions adding after last week's great earnings.

JOYG - Down 1.7%. I see softness here ahead of earnings release March 1st. With a dividend payout in 3+ weeks, I want to wait a bit. But the company is still down only 5% from it's high. We got out at $53 and it's just above $54.

MDR - Flat. Pre-earnings jitters. While it's up from our exit price and I love this stock, I still am not sure the insertion point has arrived. We exited at $47 and it's at $51.

Marvell - flat. It wants to go up, but it can't. With a PEG <1, this stock is a bargain. The pause before another run.

NTRI - Up 2.5% on solid volume. We have recovered a great deal of lost ground - up 20% since last week. I also like the bid sizes. They hit a new 52 week high. There is strong demand. For everyone who kept the faith and to thos ewho bought in around $42 or less, thanks for the vote of confidence.

NUAN - I like their story. I like their uniqueness and growth strategy. They hit a 52 week high.

SNDK - up 8% on strong volume. We exited at $59 last week after watching the lack of institutional love. I love this company, but we shouldn't ignore concerns about current pricing pressures.

STX - Up 2% on soft volume. This company is still a screaming buy. I just had to replace my iPOD (piece of crap lasted 2 years before dying from very light use and careful treatment). Here's the problem - I have to upgrade my PC to accomodate all the songs and video that I want to put on this 60GB beast. STX wins because I buy their hard drive when I buy iPODs and they win when I go out and upgrade my PC's hard drive.

TEVA - Up 1.3%. I like the long term prospects. I also detect some strength. But they are not growing fast enough for LiveRocket.

TIE - Down 2%. Continuing a slight pull back after racing up 10% in the last week.

TRID - Up 1% on light volume.

WSO - This stock is next on our list to buy. They are a heating and air conditioning company. The dominate a very fractured market with 7% of the US market. I like the slow steady growth and the margin advantages of consolidation.

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