My Watch List

Back on May 28th I shared a list of stocks that are on my watch list
http://liverocket.blogspot.com/search?q=fwlt

Lets check where they are looking at a 1 month performance
FWLT - Up 16%
BW - Down 13%
FCX - Up 19%
CELG - Up 1%
ICE - Up 6%
CPO - Up 6%
WFR - Up 9%
CTV - Up 12%
PCR - Up 14%
NOV - Up 15%

I will be migrating out of the following stocks in due time
DIGE
CTSH
TRID (I want it to hit high 20s or exit by November)
TIE (I want it to touch 40 or exit by November)
PWR (we made some profit, time to move on)
UCTT (I want it to touch 20s or exit by November)

Other stocks I keep watching
ENI
S
CRDN
IO
ZOLT

Preliminary Earnings Release Schedule

For some reason, too many of our stocks have uncertain release dates according to EARNINGS.COM. But they tend to be starting in ~2+ weeks, so here you go.

AMX July 23
ATW Aug 7
CTSH Aug 2 (?)
NUAN Aug 6 (?)
PWR Jul 30 (?)
TRID Jul 26 (?)
UCTT Jul 27 (?)
CLB Jul 26
ESV Jul 24
MDR Jul 30
HOLX Jul 23 (?)
IMA Jul 30 (?)
KSU Jul 26
OCN Jul 23
PCP Jul 24 (?)
TIE Jul 23 (?)

LiveRocket Week 27 Performance - Up 4%

Rebound following last week's end of the quarter window dressing.

With a few exceptions, we are where we want to be.
I will be selling a few stocks very soon: DIGE & CTSH among them.

HIGH TECH
AMX – Up 6.4%. And a 52 week high. Up every trading day.
CTSH – Up 3%. I am still holding on for the quarterly earnings release before I eject, but I see no reason to stay.
NUAN – Up 1.5%. Extremely low volume all week. Perhaps the big boys already made their purchases. I don’t think NUAN is looking to get bought out. I think they are playing for a bigger game and they stand a chance of beating GOOG and MS at it.
PWR – Up 1.3%. Really light volume all week. I am looking for some good earnings results, especially margin growth. I am also focusing on their 89 P/E (forward is 30 ish). This P/E is misleading because it includes a non-cash Goodwill write-down that dropped EPS $0.26. Reversing that one-time charge, earnings were closer to $0.8. That’s a 40 P/E.
They also were given a BUY rating this week by Lazard Capital.
TRID– Up 4.5%. Did you buy the January $20 calls that I recommended.
UCTT – Flat. It tested $14 and pulled back – not a good sign. In fact, the technicals show the 50 dma and 200 dma crossing. Also, I was expecting a pre-earnings run up and it hasn’t happened. UCTT has stalled out the last 2 months. This is frequently a sign that word is out and the release won’t be good.
Earnings are flattening the next 2 quarters in the face of a short term capital spending slowdown, but that is expected to reverse (and rise 50% next year). I’m waiting for that.

OIL SERVICES/EQUIPMENT
ATW – Up 4.5% and hit a new 52 week high. Imagine what will happen if they get a buyout offer.
CLB – Up 2.5%. A new 52 week high
ESV – Up 5%+ and hit a 52 week high
MDR – Up 8% and hit a 52 week high. MDR’s credit rating was raised, making debt cheaper and easier to raise capital.

BIOTECH
DIGE – Up 3%. It’s the Qiagen stock price surge (up 15% in 1 month). Time to sell.
HOLX – Up 2%. I am not seeing what I want to see: a rapid rise pre-earnings. It is up 8% from it’s Q1 post-earnings collapse (after hitting a 52 week high). But it needs to hit $64 to beat the last quarter’s performance. That would be an $8 or 15% rise in a few weeks. I guess next week might see a surge – we’ll see.
IMA – Up 2%. No news. They are trading close to their 52 week high. An analyst at Jefferies raised guidance.

OTHER
KSU – Up 5%. They reversed last week’s drop. KSU is getting hit by some recent weather problems that slowed down some shipping. Between the Ethanol craze and the Mexican port opportunity, I think KSU is in a great place.
OCN – Down 6%. Not happy, not happy, not happy. Someone is walking away and I’m puzzled. Foreclosure rates, auto repossessions and credit card defaults are rising – this is big business for OCN. What don’t I know?
PCP – Up 5%. And a new 52 week high. Stock split announcement at earnings release?
TIE – Up 5%, reversing last week. An article in Forbes highlighted the strength of titanium and TIE in particular.

Week 26 LiveRocket Performance - Flat

Actually, we were down a bit, but it isn't really worth focusing on imho. The markets were also generally flat. I am focusing on the end-of-the-quarter timing as a reason for lacklustre performance. I am also counting on some strong movements up by TRID & TIE, because almost everything else has been showing solid returns.

Because this week is an anomaly, I won't spend time focusing on individual stocks.

We are now 1.5 years into LR and things look good. A 50% return which I hope will be a lot higher post earnings season.