Friday, July 06, 2007

LiveRocket Week 27 Performance - Up 4%

Rebound following last week's end of the quarter window dressing.

With a few exceptions, we are where we want to be.
I will be selling a few stocks very soon: DIGE & CTSH among them.

HIGH TECH
AMX – Up 6.4%. And a 52 week high. Up every trading day.
CTSH – Up 3%. I am still holding on for the quarterly earnings release before I eject, but I see no reason to stay.
NUAN – Up 1.5%. Extremely low volume all week. Perhaps the big boys already made their purchases. I don’t think NUAN is looking to get bought out. I think they are playing for a bigger game and they stand a chance of beating GOOG and MS at it.
PWR – Up 1.3%. Really light volume all week. I am looking for some good earnings results, especially margin growth. I am also focusing on their 89 P/E (forward is 30 ish). This P/E is misleading because it includes a non-cash Goodwill write-down that dropped EPS $0.26. Reversing that one-time charge, earnings were closer to $0.8. That’s a 40 P/E.
They also were given a BUY rating this week by Lazard Capital.
TRID– Up 4.5%. Did you buy the January $20 calls that I recommended.
UCTT – Flat. It tested $14 and pulled back – not a good sign. In fact, the technicals show the 50 dma and 200 dma crossing. Also, I was expecting a pre-earnings run up and it hasn’t happened. UCTT has stalled out the last 2 months. This is frequently a sign that word is out and the release won’t be good.
Earnings are flattening the next 2 quarters in the face of a short term capital spending slowdown, but that is expected to reverse (and rise 50% next year). I’m waiting for that.

OIL SERVICES/EQUIPMENT
ATW – Up 4.5% and hit a new 52 week high. Imagine what will happen if they get a buyout offer.
CLB – Up 2.5%. A new 52 week high
ESV – Up 5%+ and hit a 52 week high
MDR – Up 8% and hit a 52 week high. MDR’s credit rating was raised, making debt cheaper and easier to raise capital.

BIOTECH
DIGE – Up 3%. It’s the Qiagen stock price surge (up 15% in 1 month). Time to sell.
HOLX – Up 2%. I am not seeing what I want to see: a rapid rise pre-earnings. It is up 8% from it’s Q1 post-earnings collapse (after hitting a 52 week high). But it needs to hit $64 to beat the last quarter’s performance. That would be an $8 or 15% rise in a few weeks. I guess next week might see a surge – we’ll see.
IMA – Up 2%. No news. They are trading close to their 52 week high. An analyst at Jefferies raised guidance.

OTHER
KSU – Up 5%. They reversed last week’s drop. KSU is getting hit by some recent weather problems that slowed down some shipping. Between the Ethanol craze and the Mexican port opportunity, I think KSU is in a great place.
OCN – Down 6%. Not happy, not happy, not happy. Someone is walking away and I’m puzzled. Foreclosure rates, auto repossessions and credit card defaults are rising – this is big business for OCN. What don’t I know?
PCP – Up 5%. And a new 52 week high. Stock split announcement at earnings release?
TIE – Up 5%, reversing last week. An article in Forbes highlighted the strength of titanium and TIE in particular.

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