Wednesday, June 27, 2007

TRID - laughing and crying

Ok, it's dropped 30% in ~2 months, and on high volumes.
That's institutional shedding and usually a sign that something is not right and that the word has spilled out to the funds.

I checked and found that there are a lot of rumors about missing business at the majors, but the institutional analysts at CIBC claimed to have done checking that completely disputed the rumors. More critically, TRID picked up Westinghouse and plenty of other Chinese manufacturers. They continue to grow market share in a fast growing product. Enough said.

There is also a rumor that TRID will miss the earnings re-statement this quarter. Interestingly enough, both Lehman and CIBC claimed that they would resolve it BEFORE the July 19th earnings report. frankly, I don't care if they hit or miss the date because the deadline is 100% absolute: October or they get de-listed with no appeals.

Short interest has climbed to ~20%, and I am certain that that is also creating downward pressure.

At $18, I'm satisfied that we've hit close to the bottom. I'm getting in tomorrow and buying calls.

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