CROX and UA

Conspicuous spending and consumerism are bugs that have bitten China and India. Local brands are doing well and juggernauts like Nike are extending their reach.

As Nike looks out, some clothing companies are doing well in the US. I have been following UA and CROX for some time. Back in December, both were on my final list of companies to buy, but I couldn't pull the trigger because of valuation: I prefer to buy undervalued companies. Also, with CROX, I saw more trend and hype than a long distance runner.

CROX has surged 100% since December and UA has actually sagged a bit.

The key difference is the valuation: CROX now has a 22 P/E while UA is 55. Moreover, CROX is growing earnings 100%+ whereas UA is expected to hit 20% for the year.

My mistake on CROX was to rely too much on my perception that they were more sizzle than steak. That is, I believed that they were going to hit their numbers but I also believed that the trendy shoe would last 1 season. Instead, I was shown that they have more going for them. Nevertheless, I still believe that they don't have longevity. Fashion is fickle.

ILMN, MDR, NUAN, UCTT, ATW, IO

ILMN - Up, up and away. Looks like the word is out that sales are strong. I got back in around $33 and I expected it to linger a while.

MDR - It still hasn't seen a fair price yet. Look for a split around $100

NUAN - A big Motley Fool article. This really is a company to own and add to on any pullback. Voice recognition has yet to reach a tenth of its potential, and NUAN is the Microsoft of VR.

UCTT - Remember how they were languishing around $13? They are now almost at $15. Volatile stock but worth the ride.

ATW - Just hit a new high. You need to own this company

IO - Hit a new 52 week high. I've mentioned them in the past several times. They are very tasty and looks like the market agrees: up 50% in 6 months. (I own them at ~$11)

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It's all about oligopolies in the extraction/production of oil as well as select high growth companies.

TIE bouncing up sharply

After drifting as low as $32, TIE is approaching $35 again.

A series of articles were released that pointed to the strength of titanium demand.

TRID - Low price + Strong demand

I am either really, really dumb when it comes to TRID or I am a patient investor.
Again, my take is that TRID is worth $40 - at 11X current sales, it is trading at a 40% discount to its peers. So, I'll sit tight waiting for that return. A 100% return in 3 years is good.

In the meantime, it keeps crashing on major up days.
Here's what CIBC just reported

Trident Micro (NASDAQ:TRID): Low valuation + strengthening demand- CIBC is reiterating Sector Outperformer rating and $28 tgt on Trident Micro (NASDAQ:TRID) after CFO John Edmunds participated in a series of investor meetings during the CIBC Consumer Semiconductor Conference in NYC.

Industry indicators signal a strong C2H07, and image processing champ TRID remains firm's favorite DTV pick.Based on recent checks, they believe rebounding panel pricing is being partly driven by robust 2H 32-inch+ Tier-1 TV demand (TRID's sweet spot). These leading indicators, & the rapid ramp of 1080P (Sharp, Samsung, & Sony own 85%+ of this segment) point to a strong CY2H07 for TRID.

Checks further indicate strengthening demand could generate CY07 TV unit sell of as much as 78M, well-above CIBC's current 72M estimate, with growing Tier- 1 mix. They also expect TRID should be able to file its delinquent 10K/Qs by mid- July, prior to their release of June Q results.

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So we have strong and strengthening demand per the CFO and per independent analysis.
We have a hugely oversold company
We have the potential to see the options issue resolved. That is important for several reasons. First, nobody likes to invest where there is unknown risk.
But mainly because the stock will burst onto investors radar screens when they see the P/E and growth. I think the P/E will show up around 15 versus a 50%+ growth rate.

I want to see how low this puppy will go, because I am going to buy some calls - January $25s I think

Why do I keep holding off from buying

The last two weeks have been pretty volatile in the stock market. Often times volatility spells opportunity.

I did add to some of my personal positions over the last few weeks (NUAN for $15.50, PCP for $116, for example). But I want to wait until mid-Jue to buy for LiveRocket. i don't like the 5 days down and 2 days up cycle and I want to see some stronger pricing direction.

In the meantime, a few interesting tidbits.
TRID - I actually think that they will wrap up the options issue this quarter, which would give them great springboard momentum going into the Fall.

PCP - Boeing announced that there is a shortage of critical parts including fasteners. PCP dominates the fastener business at Boeing. Nothing like selling products in hot demand.

TIE - Collapsing all around us. At its 200 DMA. PE is near a long term low. What I think: a lot of shorts cashed in on last month's rumored TIE acquisition. They are in a great position to keep hammering the stock but it too will pass. It's time to buy TIE calls. If you look at the open interest, you will see that calls outweigh puts by a sizeable margin. That is a bullish sign.

I continue to marvel at the irrationality attached to TIE. They dominate a key product at a time of rising demand. They have a 19 P/E and a PEG of 0.79.

RSH - This company continues to just boggle my mind. It has a rapidly shrinking share of the market and a collapsing sales picture. The only positive sign is that bleeding has been stopped by massive layoffs and store closings. That keeps the patient alive but it is still in a vegetative state. Yesterday I went to a Best Buy and a Radioshack. Best Buy had lots of customers, Radioshack was empty. I was the only customer. And the service difference was that Best Buy had tons of staff and Radioshack had one surly clerk. I just don't get it.