Wednesday, April 12, 2006

Nice rebound

Nice rebound
TRID - nada. But Circuit City announced and said that Flat panel TVs drove sales through the roof. Umm, hello. That's TRID sales too, because they dominate the market for chips in those TVs
TIE - Up to $52 in afterhours. I got lucky and bought in yesterday at $49.
STX - Up 1%. Every little bit helps
MRVL - nada. But at least they stayed positive most of the day (hey, am I reaching here?)
MDR, JOYG, JLG - Soft except for JOYG. JLG sunk 6% at opening only to rebound. But they are all near their highs, so this is noise to me
GHL, GRP - down a bit. Noise
CELG - Nice jump on DNA news
PCP - Hey, massive jump
SNDK - YAY! Huge jump. Welcome to the S&P
PWR - Wow, helluva nice jump.

So no real drops after a lackluster day and some nice healthy moves. I like buying opportunities

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

WFMI..Wondering if this stock is back in your radar..Looks like this may move back up as I see a reversal on the charts.

10:15 AM  
Blogger Andrew said...

I am watching WFMI because I really like them. I have never gone to a store where it wasn't relatively busy.
I think that they are a machine and will keep growing. Sure, some competition might come in, like upscale Walmarts that sell organic food. But I doubt it. The WFMI approach is world's apart from Safeway and others. It isn't just organic foods.

Saying that, I think the P/E is too high. They have a 50 P/E but are growing ~25%. Not only that, but I their earnings are slowing down. For this quarter, WFMI is expected to grow 15%. In addition, they have missed earnings two quarters in a row - each time with interesting excuses. In truth, margins are slipping: over the past year gross profit is down from 35.7% to 34.5% and net profit is down from 3.9% to 3.5%. It's not from more store openings - that hasn't changed enough to affect the numbers. And that is happening before they started making excuses about missing earnings.

So where is the good news in the face of falling margins, falling earnings, slowing earnings growth, slowing sales growth, and earnings growth slipping to 40% of the P/E?
That is why I moved away from them.

I agree that they are up from their recent low and that they seem to have turned the corner in sentiment. The stochastics even suggest that they are oversold. And I believe that they will continue to grow. But fundamentally, this is a $45 stock based on earnings growth. And that's being generous.

I think that the uptick is really wishing investing. It's only a matter of time before P/Es align with earnings growth.

10:44 AM  

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home