Tuesday, April 11, 2006

Taking Stock (pun intended)

Why do I feel so positive about the market after it has fallen almost 2% in the last week?

First, this is just profit taking. After all, virtually every sector got clobbered, not just a particular sector.
Second, the activity was actually pretty light. I pay attention when stocks move on heavy volume because of underlying support (or lack thereof). Most stocks traded on weak averages - hence, I call it profit taking.
Here's a sampling of what I mean:

CELL – Down 4% on average volume
JBLU – Yikes. I’d like to buy if they hit <$9.9. Oil is hurting them, but Delta is losing business due to potential strike.
NUAN – Down <1% on 75% average volume
SNDK – Up 1.5% on 1.3x average volume
AKAM – Up 4% on large volume
WCC – Flat on average volume
WIRE – Down 3% on average volume
WSO – Down .5% on 1.5x average volume
GILD – Down 2.4% on 80% average volume
PCP – Up on average volume
PWR – Down 3.5% on 2x average volume
BMHC – Down 4% on 80% average volume
CELG – Down 5% on 1.5x average volume


ET – Down 2% on 67% average volume
GHL – Down 1% on 80% average volume
GRP – Down 0.7% on 96% average volume
JLG – Down 3.7% on Average volume
JOYG – Down 1.8% on 80% average volume
MDR – no change on 85% average volume
MRVL – Down 3% on average volume. I don't like the weakness, but the technicals look set to improve.
NTRI – Down 3% on 40% average volume
STX – Flat on 60% average volume
TEVA – Down 2% on 2x average volume. This is beaten down, but watch pharma come back. Still, I don't think it fits our portfolio for the long term
TIE – Down 4% on average volume
TRID – Down 3% on 1.3x average volume

I think that the buys I like are:
TRID - Wow, 600+ P/E. Yeah, but they are growing 800% Y/Y. If they hit this month's earnings target, that's a 57 P/E AFTER JUST ONE QUARTER. That's what I love about companies whose earnings are soaring - the P/E collapses really fast. For example, in the June quarter (assuming that they hit their target P/E), TRID will have a P/E of 36. Want me to continue? But I think that they will blow out the quarter based on the obvious strength of Flat Panel TVs (Best Buy, Circuit City and LG have all said - Flat Panel TVs are incredibly popular and prices are flat, not down). With Circuit City reporting tomorrow, I added to my TRID holdings.
TIE - Yeah, buy on the dips. This was ~$54 last week, now it's $49. A month ago it was $40. Two months ago it was $35. These guys are printing money, so what if there's profit taking every once in a while. There is trouble with competitors (the Russian Ti maker is having issues). Boeing is hopefully going to announce new sales to China. Oh, and Alcoa showed that there is amazing strength in commodities. And supply shortages are getting worse.
NTRI - Hmmm, barely any trading. Sounds like folks want to hold onto their shares.
STX - Ok, I see strength here. Check out the rebounding technicals.
MRVL - I like them for the long term. In the short term, who knows why they are flatter than Broadcom.
MDR, JOYG, JLG - Nothing wrong here. I love the way MDR looks btw.
GRP - Down when oil looks so strong. What is wrong here???
GHL - Holding strong.
CELG - After Genentech's studly report, these guys could jump
PCP - Check them out. Winners and looking solid
SNDK - Check out the improving fundamentals.
PWR - This one is in my IRA. I've made 70% on them in the last 8 months. They are the company hired to lay optical and electrical cable. They just announced that they expect to beat earnings expectations. They have a 48 P/E if they meet expectations. Like TRID, they are experiencing incredible growth and maintaining it.

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