Earnings Releases: The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly
We hit 52 week highs on: GHL, GRP, GRP, JOYG, MDR, TIE, TRID, NTRI
Earnings are due for our stocks as follows:
ET - Today
GHL - April 25th (I think). Amazing volatility the last 3 days.
GRP - Today
JLG - May 22th
JOYG - May 25th
MDR - June (they last released March 2nd)
MRVL - May 18th
NTRI - April 24th
STX - Released yesterday
TIE - May 18th
TEVA - April 30th
TRID - April 26th
ET - Yay, great news. Earnings up 55%, beat expectations by 10% (before acquisition costs). They slammed Revenue expectations, which were up 43% to $600M (vs $555M as expected). That was even higher than the highest analyst expected. Every quarter for the past 5 quarters, ET has showed sequential earnings increase. This was the biggest sequential jump.
Earnings guidance was incrementally raised by $0.05 for the year.
Now this is what is important: daily trade volume increased 105% Y/Y and ~45% from the last quarter. And the value of client holdings DOUBLED.
The result: stock increased ~$1 to a 52 week high of $27. I think it could go higher. Here's why. AMTD and ET get a 25 P/E. ET now has a $1.30 ttm (trailing twelve months) earnings. That's a cool $32 price. At $27, they have a 20 P/E today on the basis of 55% earnings growth that is accelerating.
If you'll recall, way back when I first bought ET, I started by looking at growing trade volume overall and saying that it should spillover to ET. It clearly has.
GRP - Another rock star performance. Sales up 42%. Earnings up 140%. (Not a typo.) Earnings crushed expectations 20%. Guidance for next quarter was raised 10%. Backlog has surged to 8 months of sales. Margins grew 5%~9% Y/Y across their units. (Well, how else do you get earnings to grow 3.5X sales rate of growth). This is a seller's market for oil/gas drilling and the market is dominated by GRP.
So no slow down, sales and earnings are accelerating. Does that explain why I was utterly amazed that prices dropped last month? When they crashed to $38, I waited to see if there was any news, and there was none, so we hopped back in at $42. They hit $54 today. A bold one-day 9% rise.
This is an example of the importance of fundamental analysis. The facts showed that GRP would kick ass this quarter. But a thinly traded small cap stock is tossed about by traders and institutional holders. We stuck to our guns and were proved right. Investment over trading.
JLG/JOYG/MDR - With energy equipment/services companies starting to report incredible results, these stocks are going up. All up 5%~10% the last few days.
NTRI - This is bringing a happy smile to my face. As anyone who follows this blog will recall, the day in February, the very day we bought NTRI, the sucker crashed 15%. And then more. We watched it drop from $48 to $34. Today it is $52, up 9% in one day and 15% in 5 days.
Volume surged almost 2X.
If you stayed with me after I said to wait it out and have faith - you are up 10% in 2 months. For those who contacted me and said they bought in at $42, congrats.
Why the jump? Perhaps realization of the value here. Most likely instutional buyers moving back in before their analysts pump it up. I am very concerned about pump and dump, so we want to lock in our profits tight. Get ready for a new stop price.
STX - Ok, not so good. This was a case of beating estimates but not promising a strong future.
There are 4 markets out there:
1. Servers and High end storage equipment
2. Consumer storage (external hard drives)
3. PCs
4. Consumer devices (iPods, TiVos, gameplayers)
Servers and high end storage is going gonzo (watch NetApp)
Consumer storage is probably growing well. I myself want to buy an external drive so that I can have a video jukebox
PCs are slowing
Consumer devices are strong
The PC growth is seasonal. Many PCs are transitioning (Apple) and buying season kicks off in the Fall. Seagate is planning new drives to fit the PC release schedule and analysts thought that this was bullshit. I don’t know enough yet to judge. But this is 70% of their revenue, and it's slowing.
Consumer product sales are strong. The TiVO-like devices are going to expand exponentially (up 100% Y/Y) and the gameplayers are delayed a bit but still up 39%. The iPod is an area of current strength (up 112%) but future weakness. Something to consider – there are 200M~300M PCs sold each year. iPods added to that PC base as an end-use of hard drives. How much? My guess is maybe 20M units (the Flash based players are actually the largest size and largest growing portion of the iPod growth). That’s a 10% bump that is fading a bit.
Look for the Fall excitement. We might actually move out of STX and wait to buy back in over the Summer as folks forget about inherent STX strength.
MRVL - Despite STX's warnings, MRVL is up strong today. MRVL gets a LOT of sales from STX. With TXN & IBM reporting great numbers, MRVL is positioned nicely. BRCM reports tomorrow, and that will have an effect.
TEVA - Ok, not good. It is showing no strength. I am not going to wait for it to break more to the downside. There are far too many stars. I got us in prematurely I think. I'd like to see a good earnings release and then we move on. Alternatively, it coul dget weaker, so setting a Stop at $38.
TRID - Yeah, remember this one. Doing nothing and now up 10% in 2 days. It's all about TXN and other semiconductor earnings releases.
Earnings are due for our stocks as follows:
ET - Today
GHL - April 25th (I think). Amazing volatility the last 3 days.
GRP - Today
JLG - May 22th
JOYG - May 25th
MDR - June (they last released March 2nd)
MRVL - May 18th
NTRI - April 24th
STX - Released yesterday
TIE - May 18th
TEVA - April 30th
TRID - April 26th
ET - Yay, great news. Earnings up 55%, beat expectations by 10% (before acquisition costs). They slammed Revenue expectations, which were up 43% to $600M (vs $555M as expected). That was even higher than the highest analyst expected. Every quarter for the past 5 quarters, ET has showed sequential earnings increase. This was the biggest sequential jump.
Earnings guidance was incrementally raised by $0.05 for the year.
Now this is what is important: daily trade volume increased 105% Y/Y and ~45% from the last quarter. And the value of client holdings DOUBLED.
The result: stock increased ~$1 to a 52 week high of $27. I think it could go higher. Here's why. AMTD and ET get a 25 P/E. ET now has a $1.30 ttm (trailing twelve months) earnings. That's a cool $32 price. At $27, they have a 20 P/E today on the basis of 55% earnings growth that is accelerating.
If you'll recall, way back when I first bought ET, I started by looking at growing trade volume overall and saying that it should spillover to ET. It clearly has.
GRP - Another rock star performance. Sales up 42%. Earnings up 140%. (Not a typo.) Earnings crushed expectations 20%. Guidance for next quarter was raised 10%. Backlog has surged to 8 months of sales. Margins grew 5%~9% Y/Y across their units. (Well, how else do you get earnings to grow 3.5X sales rate of growth). This is a seller's market for oil/gas drilling and the market is dominated by GRP.
So no slow down, sales and earnings are accelerating. Does that explain why I was utterly amazed that prices dropped last month? When they crashed to $38, I waited to see if there was any news, and there was none, so we hopped back in at $42. They hit $54 today. A bold one-day 9% rise.
This is an example of the importance of fundamental analysis. The facts showed that GRP would kick ass this quarter. But a thinly traded small cap stock is tossed about by traders and institutional holders. We stuck to our guns and were proved right. Investment over trading.
JLG/JOYG/MDR - With energy equipment/services companies starting to report incredible results, these stocks are going up. All up 5%~10% the last few days.
NTRI - This is bringing a happy smile to my face. As anyone who follows this blog will recall, the day in February, the very day we bought NTRI, the sucker crashed 15%. And then more. We watched it drop from $48 to $34. Today it is $52, up 9% in one day and 15% in 5 days.
Volume surged almost 2X.
If you stayed with me after I said to wait it out and have faith - you are up 10% in 2 months. For those who contacted me and said they bought in at $42, congrats.
Why the jump? Perhaps realization of the value here. Most likely instutional buyers moving back in before their analysts pump it up. I am very concerned about pump and dump, so we want to lock in our profits tight. Get ready for a new stop price.
STX - Ok, not so good. This was a case of beating estimates but not promising a strong future.
There are 4 markets out there:
1. Servers and High end storage equipment
2. Consumer storage (external hard drives)
3. PCs
4. Consumer devices (iPods, TiVos, gameplayers)
Servers and high end storage is going gonzo (watch NetApp)
Consumer storage is probably growing well. I myself want to buy an external drive so that I can have a video jukebox
PCs are slowing
Consumer devices are strong
The PC growth is seasonal. Many PCs are transitioning (Apple) and buying season kicks off in the Fall. Seagate is planning new drives to fit the PC release schedule and analysts thought that this was bullshit. I don’t know enough yet to judge. But this is 70% of their revenue, and it's slowing.
Consumer product sales are strong. The TiVO-like devices are going to expand exponentially (up 100% Y/Y) and the gameplayers are delayed a bit but still up 39%. The iPod is an area of current strength (up 112%) but future weakness. Something to consider – there are 200M~300M PCs sold each year. iPods added to that PC base as an end-use of hard drives. How much? My guess is maybe 20M units (the Flash based players are actually the largest size and largest growing portion of the iPod growth). That’s a 10% bump that is fading a bit.
Look for the Fall excitement. We might actually move out of STX and wait to buy back in over the Summer as folks forget about inherent STX strength.
MRVL - Despite STX's warnings, MRVL is up strong today. MRVL gets a LOT of sales from STX. With TXN & IBM reporting great numbers, MRVL is positioned nicely. BRCM reports tomorrow, and that will have an effect.
TEVA - Ok, not good. It is showing no strength. I am not going to wait for it to break more to the downside. There are far too many stars. I got us in prematurely I think. I'd like to see a good earnings release and then we move on. Alternatively, it coul dget weaker, so setting a Stop at $38.
TRID - Yeah, remember this one. Doing nothing and now up 10% in 2 days. It's all about TXN and other semiconductor earnings releases.
posted by Andrew at
5:58 PM
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