Week 23 Performance - Down 0.25%

Week 23
Dow 0.16%
S&P -0.54%
NASDAQ -0.56%
LiveRocket -0.25%

YTD
Dow 3.93%
S&P 3.29%
NASDAQ 5.49%
LiveRocket 16.21%

Since Inception (Nov 4, 2005)
Dow 5.9%
S&P 5.7%
NASDAQ 7.2%
LiveRocket 27.27%

This was a short week and one filled with holidays. Nevertheless, the theme is definitely strong earnings in the face of inflation (and rising interest rates). I think only Intel gave a pre-earnings guidance that was negative, and many others gave strong positive guidance.
Regardless, the market may not react positively in the near term because it is overconcerned about interest rate hikes - which are now inevitable and possibly not just one more.

We continue to overweight technology and mining/commodities.
However, softness in tech and softness in some other holdings bears watching.

FINANCIALS
ET – Down 2%. But it is EXACTLY the same as AMTD and SCHW. The key here is that ET outperforms AMTD and SCH over the longer term. We are still within 5% of their recent 52 week high, so I am happy with things as they are.
GHL – Up 3% and it set a new 52 week high, again. That's 3 weeks in a row that it is pushing a newer high. I pointed out last week that it was gettiing >$70. Well, this week it stayed above $70 every day. Also, LAZ dropped 4% and GHL rose - I like to see that because it highlights for me the market view of GHL's potential relative to its peers.

COMMODITIES & EQUIPMENT
GRP – Up 5% ON TOP OF A 3.4% run last week. It's all about oil strength. GRP's chart looks EXACTLY like VLO's, similar to SWN and better than CHK & BP. I bought it because it has performed better than oil companies. It was my way of getting the oil benefit at a higher multiple. Lately, that hasn't been the case....

JLG - Straight down another 9%. That's 2 weeks of consecutive down weeks. Straight down, do not pass GO. It's not sector rotation either, as other companies are looking fine. It COULD be related to the split - it is pulling back a bit. Except that it's sudden weakness. It could be the recent dividend payment, but...
JOYG - Up 2.4%. It hit a new 52 week high. Life is good.
MDR - Up 1%. Hanging around its high.
TIE – Up ~6%. Hit a new 52 week high and stayed there - a great omen. Incredibly strong volume too.

HI TECH - Seems to be signs of weakness among chip stocks. Possible sector rotation, possible concerns over short term impacts of delays by MS Vista and PS3. Possible concerns over Apple iPod sales.
STX – Down 3.5%. Starting to feel like a trading range.
MRVL – Down 6%. I am sensing strong negative sentiment building here. Like a trading range between $55~$60.
TRID – Down 7%. All signs are pointing to incredible strength in the flat panel TV market, so why is TRID showing weakness as more and more evidence mounts that it will have a great quarter? It isn't overpriced - after this quarter, the P/E will drop from 600 to 55. Meanwhile, earnings are growing 800%.

HEALTH
NTRI – Down 4%. I think that NTRI is in a wait-and-see trading range around $45. We are waiting for an earnings release to begin our move up again.
TEVA – Flat. Frankly, after 4 months, I thought that we were poised to break out of a trading range of $40~$45. Apparently, not yet. Sentiment is negative and they show signs of being oversold. Additionally, they are under most moving averages (20/50/100) and approaching the 200 DMA. The underlying theme here is weakness

Stops:
ET - $24
GHL -$67
GRP - $43
JLG - $27
JOYG - $60
MDR - $53
TIE - $49
STX - $24
MRVL - $55
TRID - $26
NTRI - None.
Teva - None. It will take longer to realize the growth.