Monday, June 09, 2008

Some stock comments

I see some major hyperbolic actions in the gas arena - everyone is pouring into energy stocks.

My strategy of holding back and waiting for a broad market pullback has not worked.
GSG - a fine place to start investing
ETFC - I keep holding off writing calls for a better price

PUTS UPDATE
I'll do a more comprehensive review, but for now the puts are not doing well, with MGM the only exception (up ~100%). We have plenty of time - 7 months - and a bad Q2 quarter could propel us closer, but too many stocks are exhibiting strength in the face of poor fundamentals. AN for example: car sales are slumping to a major low, but the stock stays up.

MGM Sept $50 puts - very tasty: we're $5 in the money. Going to wait on this one.
AGN July $55 puts - AGN keeps rising. I think we can get out ahead on this one, but just barely
AN jan $10 puts - If they approach $12 we'll be fine. Right now they are at $14
NKE Jan $50 puts - this one is looking dicey. Everything is riding on a major drop in the US market, which looks very likely given the major pullback in clothing spending. But overseas still looks good. I am counting on a weak Q4.
VMC Jan $50 puts - These guys are finally falling back hard, but not hard enough. They must be getting creamed by oil prices and by construction pullbacks. But the stock hsa resistance at $70. If they screw up this quarter, then we should see $63 and that will put us in the money
ZLC Jan $15 puts - This looks like a lost cause. No way is business doing well, but the stock has legs. Everything depends on a strong Q4 and I don't know if we should wait until then. They need a 25% pullback.
HOG Jan $30 puts - Another one with surprise strength. They should be squealing like a pig as they get stuck with slower sales, minimal international opportunity/exposure, and lots of returned stock

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