Sunday, May 25, 2008

New Stock Watch List out next week

I'm taking advantage of the 3 day weekend to sift through Q1 earnings releases and identify a new stock list.
One thing is clear: very few stocks are making even the first round. Typically I wade through a few hundred candidates. This time, fewer than 100. That tells me that companie sare struggling. And no surprise, all companies are fitting in a few sectors:
* Global infrastructure
* China growth
* Energy
* Agriculture

The map for the US economy is written in last week's Gap earnings release.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080523/ap_on_bi_ge/earns_gap;_ylt=Am1DL8Y9BY7m331CIMvEGXKyBhIF
"sales are slumping and shoppers appear unlikely to spend more anytime soon, but the clothing retailer still boosted its first-quarter profit by 40 percent by managing inventory and cutting costs"
Managing inventory = buying fewer products
Cutting costs = layoffs, less advertising spending, and so on

In some ways, the Gap's struggles stem from an inability to hit the fashion conscious scene. But the cold reality is that companies that need to meet margins buy less and fire people. Based on my stock sifting, that is the reality for the majority of US companies, so I expect them to follow the same formula.

Now is the time to double down on a few ultrashorts in the consumer space and commercial real estate space

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