Retail Sales Unimpressive

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080508/retail_sales.html

Retail sales data is out today and sales are up ~2%.

Many folks are spinning the news as positive. But most are aware that this isn't good news.

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/calendar-shift-lifts-april-sales/story.aspx?guid=%7BEB4E014A%2D0338%2D4180%2D9C33%2D738E9FD7FFC9%7D&siteid=yhoof Technically April sales were higher but they also enjoyed an extra day in the calendar - creating the extra 2% bump in sales.

Also, I don't know if those figures are real or nominal. That is, if these are nominal and not adjusted for inflation, then sales are actually down.

Discretionary spending is getting pinched. Consumers are both buying less and buying at Walmart and Costco to stretch the dollars. Toyota is even expecting lower sales through 2009 - 18 months due to lagging US sales. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080508/earns_japan_toyota.html
Jewelry sales were sluggish as well. (ZLC and HOG puts could be looking better)

The markets may take this news as a positive omen. The atttitude seems to be that the economy is limping along and not stumbling. Certainly this data shows that to be the case. Does that mean the market will panic at the signs of stumbling?

Meanwhile, the experts are now thinking that the stimulus checks will bypass retailers and be used instead to pay off debt. But then I look at the reports showing last month's rise in consumer borrowing and maybe folks shopped last month in anticipation of the check. In either case, new sales don't look to be strong.