Wednesday, April 30, 2008

TRID - fascinating

´For the third quarter of fiscal 2008, the company reported net revenues of $55.3 million, representing a sequential decrease of 26 percent compared to net revenues of $75.0 million in the quarter ended December 31, 2007 and a 9% year-over-year decrease from the $60.6 million reported in the quarter ended March 31, 2007´

Sounds terrible, doesn´t it? But this is actually good stuff.
* Cash increased $14M to $3.75 cash per share. Forget the GAAP accounting. They added $14M in cash to their previous $222M. And that will continue to be the case each quarter.
* One time impact by $4M+ foreign income tax event.
* They are selling system on chips and have broadened portfolio

It´s quite simple, really. They can capture the low end market and own the entire field but only by releasing appropriate chips and taking the margin hit. That´s at least 2 or3 quarters away

Or they can merge. Considering that they now trade for $30M (excluding their cash) and they generate $14M cash per quarter, that´s also a no-brainer.

The market is in a show-me mood. So the future cash flow is discounted. $4.25 for a company with $4 in cash in 6 months? I´ll take that risk

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