TRID falling down hard
First the facts:
* TRID is below $5 - closed at $4.78
* Down to $4.30 in afterhours on decent volume (~110K shares in just 1 hour of trading)
* Short volume is down dramatically. Short shares were 7.07 million shares February 26th versus 6.04M
Flat panel LCD TV sales are continuing to sell at an amazing pace: >50% unit sales year-over-year
* Corning is doing great (they make the glass for the panels)
http://www.thestreet.com/s/corning-upbeat-on-lcd-tv-market/newsanalysis/techtelecom/10413644.html?puc=_htmlatb
* Samsung is hitting on all cylinders. "Samsung LCD business generated 53 percent year-over-year growth primarily due to strong sales of larger, 46-inch and above, screen sizes, the company said. " And TRID owns the >42" TV business
I just read that they presented exactly what was expected.
1. Ramping up
* New design wins at a major OEM
* Ramping up at Japanese OEMs
* Sequential sales growth starting with the June quarter
2. Bad news
* Samsung is ramping down fast
* Margin pressure as they develop low-end products
So sales are growing and they remain proftable.
Being negative on this company is dumb. They are already almost at their pure cash position - how much further down can they go?
* Bankruptcy is not possible - they have a pristine balance sheet and $222M cash in the bank.
- $22M debt
- inventory is a paltry $12M - less than 5% annual sales
- liabilities are ~$50M per quarter (including paroll and chip manufacturing costs)
- receivables are $16M
If they stopped selling, liabilities would go down to $25M per year (payroll and other costs). That's 8 year's of operations
* Lower operating costs. Every quarter reduces operating costs in 2 ways
- Options expensing. At $5 per share, their costs are low, low low
- Options backdating costs are falling from less auditing and legal costs
* No incentive to short. I don't have visibility to their current quarter's profits. Last quarter they had $3.68 cash per share. It should be the same or greater.
Now they are $4.30. Shorties can't make much money here.
* TRID is below $5 - closed at $4.78
* Down to $4.30 in afterhours on decent volume (~110K shares in just 1 hour of trading)
* Short volume is down dramatically. Short shares were 7.07 million shares February 26th versus 6.04M
Flat panel LCD TV sales are continuing to sell at an amazing pace: >50% unit sales year-over-year
* Corning is doing great (they make the glass for the panels)
http://www.thestreet.com/s/corning-upbeat-on-lcd-tv-market/newsanalysis/techtelecom/10413644.html?puc=_htmlatb
* Samsung is hitting on all cylinders. "Samsung LCD business generated 53 percent year-over-year growth primarily due to strong sales of larger, 46-inch and above, screen sizes, the company said. " And TRID owns the >42" TV business
I just read that they presented exactly what was expected.
1. Ramping up
* New design wins at a major OEM
* Ramping up at Japanese OEMs
* Sequential sales growth starting with the June quarter
2. Bad news
* Samsung is ramping down fast
* Margin pressure as they develop low-end products
So sales are growing and they remain proftable.
Being negative on this company is dumb. They are already almost at their pure cash position - how much further down can they go?
* Bankruptcy is not possible - they have a pristine balance sheet and $222M cash in the bank.
- $22M debt
- inventory is a paltry $12M - less than 5% annual sales
- liabilities are ~$50M per quarter (including paroll and chip manufacturing costs)
- receivables are $16M
If they stopped selling, liabilities would go down to $25M per year (payroll and other costs). That's 8 year's of operations
* Lower operating costs. Every quarter reduces operating costs in 2 ways
- Options expensing. At $5 per share, their costs are low, low low
- Options backdating costs are falling from less auditing and legal costs
* No incentive to short. I don't have visibility to their current quarter's profits. Last quarter they had $3.68 cash per share. It should be the same or greater.
Now they are $4.30. Shorties can't make much money here.
posted by Andrew at
2:15 PM
2 Comments:
Corning posts big profit, lifts forecast
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/corning-posts-big-profit-lifts/story.aspx?guid=%7B3CA2A094%2DC952%2D4377%2D859F%2D111012A8BF0A%7D&dist=hplatest
The Corning, N.Y.-based company also issued a rosier forecast for the current second quarter, saying "the global consumer appetite for LCD televisions continues to grow
Hi Andrew,
Thanks for sharing your thoughts on TRID. You are losing a lot of money on your investment in TRID stock and options but you keep on saying that the company/stock is good. There must be something that the market does not agree with your thesis.
It gives me a feeling that your love for TRID is similar to the love for a gal who keeps dumping you but you still keep singing songs for her :-).
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