The Rally Holds
The rally is holding strong. Every day an attempt to go down has been swatted back.
I do think that options and short covering is playing a role here, but th esentiment is overall very positive.
A key part is the fact that the financial companies are not declaring insolvency. Citigroup wrote off another big chunk, but the loss is less than last quarter. Clearly the losses will continue as the lenders continue to try and ride out the losses on their books, but the massive crisis is over for now. The patient is still in trauma but not dead or dying.
And then GOOG had great results. Again, these were jazzed by the weak dollar, but the market is seeing growth.
In any case, the market strength is very unfortunate given our massive short position. I continue to look past the near term and focus on the basics. Joe Sixpack has no money. Consumer spending is falling apart and so is corporate spending.
The best case scenario is a mild recession, which I don't believe.
I do think that options and short covering is playing a role here, but th esentiment is overall very positive.
A key part is the fact that the financial companies are not declaring insolvency. Citigroup wrote off another big chunk, but the loss is less than last quarter. Clearly the losses will continue as the lenders continue to try and ride out the losses on their books, but the massive crisis is over for now. The patient is still in trauma but not dead or dying.
And then GOOG had great results. Again, these were jazzed by the weak dollar, but the market is seeing growth.
In any case, the market strength is very unfortunate given our massive short position. I continue to look past the near term and focus on the basics. Joe Sixpack has no money. Consumer spending is falling apart and so is corporate spending.
The best case scenario is a mild recession, which I don't believe.
posted by Andrew at
7:29 AM
3 Comments:
I am totally surprised as well. The market just shrugs off any bad news and jumps really high on any positive news. Companies are saying they are going to lay off, and writing down losses, market doesnt care. Yep, our ultrashorts are beaten up heavily. I think buying calls at this time wouldnt be a good idea either. Just keeping fingers crossed :(
patience is virtue..
just be patinet..
Reality will stike the markets soon..
smart money is moving out ..
andrew,
what do you think SHLD ?
thinking of buying put on that.
thx
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