Tuesday, June 03, 2008

Market continues down, my stock list goes up

Starting in mid-March, the market rallied and didn't look back. During those 10 weeks, the market dipped 7 times. So strong was the rally that with one exception, every dip was a little bit higher than the previous one. That's a classic sign of strength.

But the opposite is also the case. The market has been bearish for 5 weeks. Each low is lower than the previous one. In fact, if that premise is correct and the market is moving down almost as linearly as it moved up, then the next low will be ~12,300 before it pulls up a bit. Some would say that 12,300 is a resistance point.

I think any pullback now can be expected to worsen as hedge funds look to lock in profits.

Some might even argue that I am being too positive.


I start my analysis back in early May, when the market first topped out. Others would start in mid-May when the market last peaked. The difference is one of severity. As I've mentioned in the past, with my Last Gasp Theory, compared with the rally, the market crash happens more severely and much faster.

- If we start with early May, the pullback is happening at the same rate and degree as the rally: 700 points in 5 weeks.

- If we start with mid-May, the pullback is much more pronounced: 700 points in 2 weeks.

I'm not going to get too hung up on this, but the difference means where we will be if this is a bear crash. We could see 12,000 a lot faster.

I note that oil has pulled back. Not sure if anyone followed my suggestion re: DUG. I didn't do anything.

The market pullback has not resulted in any pullback in my target stocks. So it looks like I'm going to have to buy.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home