Looking at the March Trade Data

We often hear that one shining light in this economic downturn is an increase in exports.
That is not happening.

http://www.census.gov/indicator/www/ustrade.html
* Exports fell $2.6B (to $148.5B in March from $151.1B in February). Goods accounted for most of the drop
- A $3B decrease in capital goods ($1.2B), car parts ($1B) and consumer goods ($0.7B)
- A very slight increase in food and beverages ($0.3B)
* Imports fell $6.2B (to $206.7B from $212.8B). Goods accounted for most of this
- Auto parts & cars ($2.1B), industrial supplies and materials ($2B), consumer goods ($1.1B), and capital goods ($0.8B)
- Oil rose only $0.8B: a 6% price hike was offset by a 2.5% drop in barrels imported.

Simply put: folks are buying less. Imports fell 3.5% when you take out the impact of oil. China trade dropped almost $2B in furniture, clothing, & toys - the stuff of conspicuous consumption.

Quick stock comment: we are short consumer services and products. If the trade trend continues, that's $13B less business for this sector, and that's a big hit. We are also short AutoNation and Harley Davidson - a drop in auto related business of $3.1B in 1 month (exports and imports) is bound to hit these companies.

I am surprised that food exports haven't increased: $0.3B is small. Maybe food sales will surge as the Spring and Summer harvests get underway.

Quick stock comment: a smaller trade deficit is good for the dollar. The dollar grows stronger as we owe the world less. More interestingly, the rest of the world will stagger from a US importing $75B less in goods. They will look for dollar safety as their economies weaken.

Some interesting highlights:
* Coal exports rose almost 50% from previous month
* TV imports surged 10%
* Corn and wheat exports are surging

* Exports to oil countries like Saudi Arabia are not growing much - meaning that petrodollars are NOT being recycled into buying US products