Wednesday, July 11, 2007

Steady, Steady

Ie said not too long ago that things would be volatile. I mentioned especially the fundamental fact that investment companies would have to dump shares to cover their bond positions. Couple that with the usual earnings cycle voltility, and we end up with stocks running up and falling back.

At the same time, we have some specific items.
TRID - As one wag pointed out, on Wall Street you are guilty unless proven innocent. In this case TRID is guilty of a suspiciously drawn out options grant overhang. Executives cheated on stock option grants or worse.
But what are the ramifications of a worst case scenario? After all, any re-statement of finances is historical. The only impact today will be fines and lawsuits. Fine amount will be anybody's guess, but lawsuits will take years to have an impact.
So the current impact is slight

UCTT - Crashing pre-earnings, not rising. Like any small cap stock, their price can be volatile. I don't have any visibility into reasons. The last shareholder meeting warned of short term order slowdown, but that should have been baked in.

CTSH - Up strong. I want out at 90

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