Tuesday, January 23, 2007

UA, CRDN, CROX, CELG, TEVA

Some other stocks that I follow and considered for my portfolio

Under Armour
I wrote about UA a few months back. I indicated that while I liked the company and saw great things, the stock price was way unjustified. Barron’s agreed with me this wee: saying that the price could not be justified

CRDN – They make ceramics and body armor. They have a P/E of 13 with expected 90% growth rates in EPS. One thing I like about CRDN is that operational costs have been mainly flat while sales has grown ~60%: Quarterly Sales rose $71M but OPEX rose only $3M. At the same time, Gross margins have grown from 35% to 37%. I expected Iraq pullback but Bush has signaled more troops. By no means is the next year solid, and so I think there is still risk here.
They are flat.

CROX
They make trendy shoes and the momentum behind this stock is obvious. They have a P/E of 39. I didn’t want to invest because they are a trendy play and their growth seems to be slowing.
Nevertheless, they are up 12%

CELG
I just don’t get CELG. They have a product. It sells. But a P/E of 400%?? That happens frequently with medical stocks, but that P/E usually falls as the sales pick up, maybe over 3 or 4 quarters. CELG, however, has had a massive P/E for 6+ quarters. It finally hit profitability and the comparative earnings growth is solid. But when you come from 1 penny in earnings, 2 pennies is 100% growth. Get the idea? They have a forward P/E of 51%, and I just think they are too rich. One thing I admire is the positive cash position.

TEVA
I am belatedly putting TEVA back on the burner. I was thinking of this when the Dems took power (they like universal healthcare) and then Gov Schwarzenneger jumped on board. Generics are the wave of the future and TEVA has seen its stock price beaten down. I was watching when it hit $31 and kept watching. Then an analyst pointed out the obvious, and it’s up 15% in a week or so.

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