Growth Stocks are the place to be
It’s Sunday and the NFC/AFC Playoffs are on TV – a season of surprise teams and upsets. In fact, it’s a perfect time to stop and consider the stocks that I considered, turned down, and where they are now. This isn’t the best time to reflect: earnings are not out yet. (Earnings frequently trigger stock movements.) But it’s always a good time to reflect.
CASH FLOW GROWTH
These companies seemed solid and were seeing large cash flow growth. I chose INFY (+5%), DIGE (flat), MDR (-7%) & IMA (flat) from this list of picks that I considered. So what has been the 6 week performance?
SAY – Flat but upward momentum
TGA – Down 4%
FADV – Up 4%
TZOO – Down 10%
ENT – Down 20%. 5% Qtly Dividend (yes, 20% annual) but I avoided due to tax changes on Canadian trusts
PRXI – Up 50%. This was one of my serious choices but I did not think that their exhibitions could really throw out the money and perform. I was wrong.
ALX –Up 2%
GLDN – Up 25% and with serious momentum. 0.4% Qtly Dividend. I liked because I see Eastern Europe growth continuing to accelerate. I went with AMX instead. Worth revisiting.
SNY – Up 4% & 0.4% Qtly Dividend. I liked DIGE potential better
NVEC – Down 45%
HTC – Up 21%. Worth revisiting. Same as GLDN – Eastern European telecom growth.
ACGL – Flat but heading down
DMRC - Flat
BAM – Flat. 0.35% Qtly Dividend
SRVY – Flat but I see upward momentum
OPSW – Down 17% This was another one that kept popping up in my research. But I didn’t get the story.
PHLY – Flat.
IMCL – Flat after recovering from a 20% drop. This was another serious contender (especially because I wanted more stocks to hedge a recession)
UTHR - Flat after recovering from a 20% drop.
IPG – Up 13%
ADS – Flat.
BAP – Flat. 0.6% Qtly Dividend.
CONCLUSION – Cash rich shares are not showing particular appeal at this time. 7 out of 25 stocks reviewed showed growth (28%) and 6 out of 25 showed losses (24%)
Flat - 12
Down - 6
Up - 7
ESSENTIALS THAT PAY GOOD DIVIDENDS
Another recession hedge: companies whose products people will continue to buy (food, cigarettes, etc) and that offer decent growth opportunity and dividends. None of these companies appealed to me.
WGL – Down 5%. 1.1% Qtly Dividend just paid
WR – Down 6%. 1% Qtly Dividend just paid
WW Down 7%. 0.25% Qtly Dividend just paid
UST – Flat but showing signs of strength. 1% Qtly Dividend just paid
DEO – Flat but showing signs of strength. This one is worth revisiting – it’s a classic defensive play: food
CL – Flat but showing signs of strength. 0.5% Qtly Dividend
ITY – Up 7%. 2% Qtly Dividend just paid. Worth revisiting.
GIS – Flat. 0.7% Qtly Dividend just paid
MKC – Down 3% after 0.5% Qtly Dividend just paid
DA – Down 3%. Yogurt just didn’t compel me much.
CONCLUSION – Experts say that a slowing economy is the time to switch assets to recession-proof stocks kicking out dividends. That would have been a money losing venture so far: 1 out of 10 stocks showed growth (10%) and 5 of 10 showed losses (50%)
Flat - 4
Down - 5
Up - 1
STRONG EARNINGS GROWTH
These are companies that are expected to show strong earnings and margin growth. I chose INFY (+5%), ESV (-8%), TRID (-16%), AMX (flat), CLB (-12%), MDR (-7%)
ITG - Flat
JNC – Up 4%
TSS – Up 12%. They just released 80% earnings growth and beat estimates by 75%.
ANST - flat
BLUD – Up 10%. They just released earnings of 90% growth and beating expectations by 10%
PSPT - flat
IDCC – Up 6%. I’m not a big believer in cell phone hardware these days.
FMD – Up 4%
DO – Flat. I own them.
OXPS – Down 22%. I liked the optionsExpress story but I also do not think buying investment companies (ET included) is a smart play when the economy softens. It also showed slower growth, and got chopped.
XTXI – Down 2%
PETM – Up 3%. I like this company a lot, and they are worth revisiting.
WCC – Down 10%.
APH – Down 5% Incredible earnings growth including a surprise cost that hit their earnings by $0.15. They still beat estimates by 5%. They gave conservative forward guidance and got hit. Worth revisiting – a possible oversold situation
CPA – Up 22%.
MSTR – Flat
VOL – Up 15%. Incredible earnings release. I own them (I didn’t sell when they were up 30% a few weeks ago)
NTRI – Down 6%.
CBEY – Flat
ACGY – Down 6% after lowering revenue guidance for 2007
HRZ - Flat
WAT – Up 10%
MRVL – Down 6% on a downgrade. I agree that MRVL growth is challenged, and so I didn’t buy. Yet. I want them back down around $19.
IPR – Up 4% Was up 15% but electricity prices have moderated
KSU – Up 6%
STA – Flat. I liked the premise – insurance companies upped premiums and saw lower payouts (weather in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida was mild). But I saw this as already backed in aka I missed out earlier this year.
LECO - Flat
VFC – Up 5%. This one popped up several times in my research but I didn’t like them – consumer products don’t fit my approach at this time. They just paid a 0.8% dividend and announced that they will buy Eagle Creek, a great company.
AFG – Up 2%
BAX – Up 10% after a 1.1% dividend.
TD - Flat
SYT – Up 10%. Guidance was raised. Worth revisiting.
BMS Up 6% on upgrade.
NVS - Flat
HB – Down 3%. Paid 0.5% dividend
LMT – Up 8%
UTX – Flat after issuing lower guidance
PG – Up 4%
SIAL - Flat
CONCLUSION – In general, this was a great place to invest (unless you are me and showed a remarkable knack for picking losers from this grouping). These companies live and die by the earnings or reports on growth. Great earnings and guidance and the stock goes up almost on down the line. That is what we want. That is the dream. Hopefully my picks will show strength after they release earnings (INFY had great results, for example).
19 out of 44 showed growth (43%) and 11 showed losses (25%)? This growth had strongest returns compared to other groups. Also, I believe that many of the stocks that went down will snap back after earnings get released.
Flat - 14
Down - 11
Up – 19
CASH FLOW GROWTH
These companies seemed solid and were seeing large cash flow growth. I chose INFY (+5%), DIGE (flat), MDR (-7%) & IMA (flat) from this list of picks that I considered. So what has been the 6 week performance?
SAY – Flat but upward momentum
TGA – Down 4%
FADV – Up 4%
TZOO – Down 10%
ENT – Down 20%. 5% Qtly Dividend (yes, 20% annual) but I avoided due to tax changes on Canadian trusts
PRXI – Up 50%. This was one of my serious choices but I did not think that their exhibitions could really throw out the money and perform. I was wrong.
ALX –Up 2%
GLDN – Up 25% and with serious momentum. 0.4% Qtly Dividend. I liked because I see Eastern Europe growth continuing to accelerate. I went with AMX instead. Worth revisiting.
SNY – Up 4% & 0.4% Qtly Dividend. I liked DIGE potential better
NVEC – Down 45%
HTC – Up 21%. Worth revisiting. Same as GLDN – Eastern European telecom growth.
ACGL – Flat but heading down
DMRC - Flat
BAM – Flat. 0.35% Qtly Dividend
SRVY – Flat but I see upward momentum
OPSW – Down 17% This was another one that kept popping up in my research. But I didn’t get the story.
PHLY – Flat.
IMCL – Flat after recovering from a 20% drop. This was another serious contender (especially because I wanted more stocks to hedge a recession)
UTHR - Flat after recovering from a 20% drop.
IPG – Up 13%
ADS – Flat.
BAP – Flat. 0.6% Qtly Dividend.
CONCLUSION – Cash rich shares are not showing particular appeal at this time. 7 out of 25 stocks reviewed showed growth (28%) and 6 out of 25 showed losses (24%)
Flat - 12
Down - 6
Up - 7
ESSENTIALS THAT PAY GOOD DIVIDENDS
Another recession hedge: companies whose products people will continue to buy (food, cigarettes, etc) and that offer decent growth opportunity and dividends. None of these companies appealed to me.
WGL – Down 5%. 1.1% Qtly Dividend just paid
WR – Down 6%. 1% Qtly Dividend just paid
WW Down 7%. 0.25% Qtly Dividend just paid
UST – Flat but showing signs of strength. 1% Qtly Dividend just paid
DEO – Flat but showing signs of strength. This one is worth revisiting – it’s a classic defensive play: food
CL – Flat but showing signs of strength. 0.5% Qtly Dividend
ITY – Up 7%. 2% Qtly Dividend just paid. Worth revisiting.
GIS – Flat. 0.7% Qtly Dividend just paid
MKC – Down 3% after 0.5% Qtly Dividend just paid
DA – Down 3%. Yogurt just didn’t compel me much.
CONCLUSION – Experts say that a slowing economy is the time to switch assets to recession-proof stocks kicking out dividends. That would have been a money losing venture so far: 1 out of 10 stocks showed growth (10%) and 5 of 10 showed losses (50%)
Flat - 4
Down - 5
Up - 1
STRONG EARNINGS GROWTH
These are companies that are expected to show strong earnings and margin growth. I chose INFY (+5%), ESV (-8%), TRID (-16%), AMX (flat), CLB (-12%), MDR (-7%)
ITG - Flat
JNC – Up 4%
TSS – Up 12%. They just released 80% earnings growth and beat estimates by 75%.
ANST - flat
BLUD – Up 10%. They just released earnings of 90% growth and beating expectations by 10%
PSPT - flat
IDCC – Up 6%. I’m not a big believer in cell phone hardware these days.
FMD – Up 4%
DO – Flat. I own them.
OXPS – Down 22%. I liked the optionsExpress story but I also do not think buying investment companies (ET included) is a smart play when the economy softens. It also showed slower growth, and got chopped.
XTXI – Down 2%
PETM – Up 3%. I like this company a lot, and they are worth revisiting.
WCC – Down 10%.
APH – Down 5% Incredible earnings growth including a surprise cost that hit their earnings by $0.15. They still beat estimates by 5%. They gave conservative forward guidance and got hit. Worth revisiting – a possible oversold situation
CPA – Up 22%.
MSTR – Flat
VOL – Up 15%. Incredible earnings release. I own them (I didn’t sell when they were up 30% a few weeks ago)
NTRI – Down 6%.
CBEY – Flat
ACGY – Down 6% after lowering revenue guidance for 2007
HRZ - Flat
WAT – Up 10%
MRVL – Down 6% on a downgrade. I agree that MRVL growth is challenged, and so I didn’t buy. Yet. I want them back down around $19.
IPR – Up 4% Was up 15% but electricity prices have moderated
KSU – Up 6%
STA – Flat. I liked the premise – insurance companies upped premiums and saw lower payouts (weather in the Gulf of Mexico and Florida was mild). But I saw this as already backed in aka I missed out earlier this year.
LECO - Flat
VFC – Up 5%. This one popped up several times in my research but I didn’t like them – consumer products don’t fit my approach at this time. They just paid a 0.8% dividend and announced that they will buy Eagle Creek, a great company.
AFG – Up 2%
BAX – Up 10% after a 1.1% dividend.
TD - Flat
SYT – Up 10%. Guidance was raised. Worth revisiting.
BMS Up 6% on upgrade.
NVS - Flat
HB – Down 3%. Paid 0.5% dividend
LMT – Up 8%
UTX – Flat after issuing lower guidance
PG – Up 4%
SIAL - Flat
CONCLUSION – In general, this was a great place to invest (unless you are me and showed a remarkable knack for picking losers from this grouping). These companies live and die by the earnings or reports on growth. Great earnings and guidance and the stock goes up almost on down the line. That is what we want. That is the dream. Hopefully my picks will show strength after they release earnings (INFY had great results, for example).
19 out of 44 showed growth (43%) and 11 showed losses (25%)? This growth had strongest returns compared to other groups. Also, I believe that many of the stocks that went down will snap back after earnings get released.
Flat - 14
Down - 11
Up – 19
posted by Andrew at
3:55 PM
0 Comments:
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home