Monday, January 08, 2007

Sprint a buy?

I've talked about Sprint in the recent past.
Sprint can not compete against Cingular and Verizon wireless. So it continues to hemorrhage money and customers (another reason to buy T - they now own 100% of Cingular, which must be gaining some of the 300K+ customers Sprint lost).

However, Cable companies lack a mobile phone play. Just as ATT partners with Dish Networks to provide video/cable, Comcast and Time Warner recently partnered with SPrint to provide mobile phone services. The key difference is that AT&T is building out its own video infrastructure. Comcast and TWC don't seem to be building cellular phone infrastructure. Partly because licensing for wireless spectrum inhibits investments whereas laying fiber cable doesn't require licensing.

Sprint really seems like a takeover target, with TWC and Comcast circling. The business case is really strong. The question is when. Right now, Comcast and TWC get access to Sprint's network at heavily discounted prices. Why buy the cow when the milk comes so cheap.

And Sprint is expensive. $41B in sales. They are priced at book value ($18.2 per share), until you realize that their books are cooked:
* cash and equivalents have dropped every quarter for the last 5 quarters, from $9B to $1B
* Property and equipment has dropped 20% from $31B to $24B
* Goodwill is up 50% from $1B to $30B.
In other words, hard assets have fallen from $40B to $25B while fuzzy assets have grown.
There is a downward trend in costs, and I like that, but it isn't making up the difference in hard asset drops.

Bottom line: They paid a lot for Nextel and the Nextel customers are leaving.

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