Thursday, January 18, 2007

Thursday Bloody Thursday

After a fabulous run, a market pull back was inevitable. Most of our stocks got hit, some quite a bit.
The indiscriminate sell-off in the oil sector continues. I don't care how valuable or oversold - we have a line in the sand with our STOPs. If they get hit, we will be buying back in, hopefully adding to our shares thereby. However, tomorrow is options day and I see selling ressure. So I will be watching carefully.

WINNERS
DIGE up a tad
HOLX up 1% on great news. The WSJ had an article saying that big (dense) breasted women benefit from digital imaging not film. That means HOLX. We are considering buying more.
ILMN - they ended flat but were in positive territory all day.


LOSERS
AMX - down 2%. Just a market move.
ATW - down 1.5%. Down 2.4%
CSH - Down 6%. CSH is down nearly 9% in just a few days. If it's any consolation, their biggest competitor EZPW is down 15%. The concern is a NY Times article expressing concern that operations like CSH charge outrageous fees.
ESV down a tad. Looks like a floor is set at $47. I am considering buying LEAPS (the Jan 08 $55 calls for $4.)
IMA - down 1.5%. Just a market move.
INFY - down 2.3%.
MDR - Down a tad
NUAN - Down a whopping 5%. No news.
OCn - Down a tad
PCP - Down 1.5%
TIE - Down a tad. Looks like $29 continues to be a base.
TRID - Down 2.7% and we were stopped out at $17. We're buying back in.
UCTT - Down a whopping 8%. We were stopped out at $14. We're buying back in.

3 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Could you explain why you would have a stop if you buy back when stopped out? (TRID) Seems to me that negates the whole idea of the STOP.

10:03 AM  
Blogger Andrew said...

That's a great question. If I could re-state it, you are asking: are STOPs a trigger for leaving a stock and moving on to greener pastures?
I use STOPs to lock-in profits and limit losses. Whatever the cause (market reasons, company-specific reasons) I don't want to lose money.
UCTT had a 1 month 25% surge up to $16, so a pull-back was in the cards. Is there anything wrong with the company like bad news? No. It is part of the stock's volatility.
STOPs can be used to play the volatility to maximize the gain.
If you believe in the stock, then a short-term drop below the STOP price represents a chance to add shares.
An example: UCTT dropped below our $14 STOP. Which is sad, but we netted 10%. We could turn around now and buy at ~$13.75. We could take our original investment of 519 shares and now buy 528 shares.
The thinking is that the stock will resume its upward rise and we just received a chance to make an extra 2%.
Conversely, what if a stock is hit with sudden bad news. Then the STOP gets you out and you walk away.

10:27 AM  
Anonymous Anonymous said...

It is also possible that stock can a dip for a very short time and then suddenly rise back to the same level. eg when would you do if UCTT hit 13.90 for a period of few seconds and jump back to 14.50?.In this case we lose 50 cents a share.

7:27 PM  

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