Wednesday, October 18, 2006

Apple slowing down

Apple reported today
* Revenue growth 32%
* Earnings growth 24%
* Mac unit sales grew 30%
* iPod unit sales grew 35%

So why am I negative, even though the market is ecstatic?
Apple is doing exactly what I said they would do: falling victim to th elaw of big numbers. As th enumbers get bigger and bigger, sales growth slows down.

In Apple's case, it is happening faster than I expected.
Compare this year vs last year, same quarter
* Mac Sales: 30% growth vs 48% last year
* iPod units: 220% growth vs 35%

And that is growth AFTER a massive sales campaign and the HUGE demand for the dual core computer. I'm sorry - that counts as a failure in my book.

This time next year, Apple may still be in double digit unit growths. But I wonder.

To distract from the solid but far from amazing past results, Apple pointed to possible future revenue from its iTV device. It will definitely be a possible winner if it works as projected. Bypassing cable companies to watch desired shows is another business model changing step. Just as folks were forced to buy entire albums to hear a specific song, so consumers are forced to buy 100 channels for the handful that they want. Apple forced the disaggregation of the record album. There is certainly enough interest in doing the same with cable.

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