Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Playing the negativity

Not all the negativity is factored in. Some companies are clearly in turbulent waters at the wrong time. Also, with negative housing figures on the way next week, let's consider tactical defensive measures.

I looked at stocks with high PEG ratios and diminishing sales expectations. In other words, the exact opposite of stocks I would buy. These look interesting from a Put option scenario.

LUXURY PRODUCTS
WMAR - Marine products. P/E is 128 witha 22% projected earnings growth. PEG is 9. They have had negative earnings surprises the last 3 quarters AND earnings are projected almost 20% lower than last year.

SKS - Luxury retail. P/E is 72, earnings projected this quarter to be 37% better (they are not profitable) and PEG is 7.7


HOUSING
CFFN - A bank that buys mortagages. PE of 49, PEG of 7 and earnings are expected to drop along with revenue.
LBY - They make dishes, glasses, etc. P/E of 65, PEG of 6.6 and sales flat but earnings falling
ETH - Furniture. P/E of 13, PEG of 1.5 and earnings growth of 10.
LZB - Furniture. PE of 17, PEG of 1.1, earnings falling 50%
WHR - Whirlpool. PE 13.3, PEG of 1, earnings dropping 10%.
CPWM - Cost plus home furnishings. PE 28, PEG 1.8, earnings crashing

TECH
NVL - Dying on the vine like other dinosaurs. PE 44, PEG of 5, 0% growth and next quarter is projected to shrink along with shrinking revenue.
TWMC - They operate chains of CD stores like wherehouse. They are losing to tech, so I lumped them here. PE 59, PEG 6, earnings dropping 80%
RSH - Radioshack is another dinosaur.

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