Tuesday, July 11, 2006

Some quick thoughts

First, I clearly mistimed the tech sector.
While I recognized that PC sales were slowing and that a slowing housing market would take some of the shine off consumer electronics, I took this as leading to growth but maybe not massive growth. After the May/June sell-off, I felt that market sentiment would not get worse and I was wrong.
And it's actually getting pretty stupid. MRVL is at a 52 week low - although sales are up 50% over the past year.
Then, in 3 or 4 months, watch a massive rebound as holiday sales pick up and we see Microsoft's new product.

Also, I may be wrong about TRID given the recent statements that there is an inventory buildup of flat screens. Slowing PC sales will slow the flat panel market in general, but flat panel TVs are an emerging product. Also, I felt that inventory problems were more low-end than high end. As such, I felt TRID was more immune. More critically, Best Buy and Circuit City reported blockbuster sales for flat panel TVs. At this point, I am sitting on TRID because the damage is done.

A second thought is that the economy is still strong. Metals are still strong. TIE's stock price is moving with the metal's market, whereas it previously was moving above it. Also, the budget deficit is projected to be $400B lower. That's good.

However, the market is very negative and when sentiment is negative, you can find almost anything to bolster the case for being negative.
Housing continues to be a concern insofar as the toll it will take on the broader economy.

I am analyzing some luxury brands that I think are worth buying puts on. GE also looks like a put candidate.

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