Wednesday, July 12, 2006

Next steps and New STOPs

We don't have a lot of earnings news right now, but what we have is mixed. Worse, the market is jumpy. Too jumpy. A company will have to blow out earnings and promise even more and only then will the market accept that answer. Not only is the market unforgiving, I suspect that almost all expectations will be too high.

I want to get very defensive at this point. We will tighten STOPs. Fundamentally, barring earnings misses, these are great stocks for the immediate term. I am happy to buy back in at lower prices.
Second, I will move away from stocks with PEG ratios that seem unreasonable.
With that in mind, here is the portfolio with 5 year PEG ratio, PE and expected quarterly earnings growth:
AMX 0.59 17.9 5%
DIS 1.5 23 5%
emt 0.5 29 20%
esv 0.21 16.5 320%
et 1 17.5 30%
grp 0.6 24 70%
isil 1.2 32 100%
jblu 1.1 NA -50%
jlg 0.5 15 20%
mdr 1.5 22 40%
tti 0.3 40 50%
vol NA 31 NA

AMX - Underpriced
DIS - How much Pirates factors into the quarter will make a difference. I do think DIS is a bit pricey, but it has some upside. I want to dump if we can lock in 10%
EMT - Very reasonably priced
ESV - Ok, they will have a 13 P/E after earnings season and have a PEG ratio of 0.21. This stock should be twice the price.
ET - A fair price and heading to a 15 P/E after this earnings season. I want to see it rise to $24.
GRP - An 18 P/E if they hit their numbers this quarter. Wow.
ISIL - A reasonable PEG, P/E isn't high for a chip stock, and earnings are growing. A 20 P/E if they hit earnings expectations this quarter.
JBLU - This was a short term pickup, based on some summertime upside I expected due to fare increases and travel. I basically don't think that there will be any slowdown in travel, regardless of the fractionally higher prices. The cost of gas and gas related items is a fraction of total trip costs. earnings are expected to be down based on the impact of gas.
JLG - The P/E is dropping really fast but the concern is over demand for their construction equipment. Obviously, a slowdown in the economy and rise in interest rates will slow down their business. They don't release for 5 weeks, so we are in a bit of darkness. I don't like the perceived tie to housing construction, so I want to tighten thi sone.
MDR - The P/E is reasonable, not cheap. I expect much more earnings surprises this quarter.
TTI - The P/E is high due to massive earnings growth. If they hit earnings estimates, the P/E drops to ~30. Note the incredibly low PEG ratio.
VOL - A wild card. I like the upside surprise potential here and the sequential 10% increase in revenues. But a potential for price collapse is always possible. Note that if they hit earnings, PE drops to 27. Employment is strong, so a likelihood of hitting target is equally strong. But they are not cheap. I want to try and catch some momentum and get out.


NEW STOPS
AMX - $32
DIS - $29
EMT - $14.8
ESV - $42
ET - $20.8
GRP - $43
ISIL - $22.5
JBLU $11.5
JLG $19
MDR $43
TTI $28
VOL $44

I will be watching carefully and looking for som ebuy opportunities if we get stopped out.

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