IRANIAN IMPACT
IRAN HAS A CLEAR STRATEGY
Many might look at the Iranian President's moves as the outcome of bumbling incompetence. I disagree.
Iran wants a nuclear weapon. Why? History. Iranians are Persians not Arabs. And they are Shiite as well. They are surrounded by Sunni Muslims and Arabs. Since Khomeini, Iran has been involved in a struggle with the Saudi Wahabbi Sunnis to wear the mantle of most Islamic Country.
This struggle has manifested itself in the massive bankrolling of anti-Israel activity (Hezbollah, Hamas, Fatah) and anti-Taliban activity pre-9/11. Remember - The Taliban were massively supported by the Saudis.
Iran also harbors ill will after being manipulated by the US via the Shah and after Iraq attacked and the US was found to be supplying Iraq with support. They are currently surrounded by the US: in Kuwait, Dubai, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Whether one thinks Iran isolated itself or that the US policies have isolated it, Iran feels under attack. Hence, the nuclear weapon.
Iran's strategy is deflection. While the actual view is Persia versus the Arabs and the West, Iran is trying to sow confusion within the Arab community.
1. Colonialism - Unlike the Arab countries, Iran was never broken up by Britain/France. Nevertheless, it seeks to re-define the nuclear weapon issue as a colonial issue.
2. Israel - The anti-Israel sabre rattling and Holocaust denials are part of attempts to re-position itself as the protector of Islam and to re-define the efforts against them as an attack against Islam.
Whether Arabs buy into this will be a test of their political and societal maturity.
Arab countries in the neighborhood are starting to get concerned, but only because Israel and the US look reluctant to strike directly. The smaller states in particular are nervous, because the truth is that the main Iranian target is not Israel but the Arabs.
The weapon is a point of pride and losing that option would bring down the mullahs. The only leverage the world has is economic: the Iranian economy is incredibly fragile and was on the point of collapse before the oil prices rose so high, so fast.
But any embargo on Iran can disrupt oil supplies.
So we are avoiding oil dependent stocks (USA Trucking, JetBlue)
Many might look at the Iranian President's moves as the outcome of bumbling incompetence. I disagree.
Iran wants a nuclear weapon. Why? History. Iranians are Persians not Arabs. And they are Shiite as well. They are surrounded by Sunni Muslims and Arabs. Since Khomeini, Iran has been involved in a struggle with the Saudi Wahabbi Sunnis to wear the mantle of most Islamic Country.
This struggle has manifested itself in the massive bankrolling of anti-Israel activity (Hezbollah, Hamas, Fatah) and anti-Taliban activity pre-9/11. Remember - The Taliban were massively supported by the Saudis.
Iran also harbors ill will after being manipulated by the US via the Shah and after Iraq attacked and the US was found to be supplying Iraq with support. They are currently surrounded by the US: in Kuwait, Dubai, Iraq, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Whether one thinks Iran isolated itself or that the US policies have isolated it, Iran feels under attack. Hence, the nuclear weapon.
Iran's strategy is deflection. While the actual view is Persia versus the Arabs and the West, Iran is trying to sow confusion within the Arab community.
1. Colonialism - Unlike the Arab countries, Iran was never broken up by Britain/France. Nevertheless, it seeks to re-define the nuclear weapon issue as a colonial issue.
2. Israel - The anti-Israel sabre rattling and Holocaust denials are part of attempts to re-position itself as the protector of Islam and to re-define the efforts against them as an attack against Islam.
Whether Arabs buy into this will be a test of their political and societal maturity.
Arab countries in the neighborhood are starting to get concerned, but only because Israel and the US look reluctant to strike directly. The smaller states in particular are nervous, because the truth is that the main Iranian target is not Israel but the Arabs.
The weapon is a point of pride and losing that option would bring down the mullahs. The only leverage the world has is economic: the Iranian economy is incredibly fragile and was on the point of collapse before the oil prices rose so high, so fast.
But any embargo on Iran can disrupt oil supplies.
So we are avoiding oil dependent stocks (USA Trucking, JetBlue)
posted by Andrew at
4:41 PM
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