Monday, January 09, 2006

Updates and Stop Loss Changes

This was another day for new highs.
GILD, MRVL, JLG, JOYG, SNDK, STX - All hit another 52 week high.
Not coincidentally, MRVL, JOYG, SNDK, STX - all had very strong volume

Of the remaining stocks, AKAM and MDR neared their 52 week high (AKAM actually fell fro mits high yesterday mostly from profit taking, I hope)

Notable movers today were Sandisk (SNDK) and Seagate (STX), up 4%+ today.
Notable movers over the past 5 days were GILD (9%), MRVL (10.5%), JLG (8%), JOYG (7%), MDR (6%), AKAM (10%) SNDK( 19%), STX (11%).

My take is that we are looking at the pre-earnings excitement. These prices are ok IF the releases are strongly positive, and I think they all will be.
In particular, JOYG, JLG & STX all have PEGs at or near 1 - meaning that even at current earnings and Stock price, the PE is either in line or less than the growth rate. Meaning that these stocks look cheap.
Additionally, MRVL and MDR have PEG ratios of 1.14 and 1.25 respectively.
I am concerned about WFMI (PEG 2.5), GILD (PEG 1.8) & SNDK (1.9) which are looking pricey now. If they come out with less than amazing earnings, be prepared to exit.

As we approach earnings season, we will probably see the usual pops in stock prices with some easing. However, as money returns from the housing market, I wonder if the stocks won't stay high instead of easing. This is important for setting stops.

NEW STOP LOSSES
WFMI 75
GILD 53 (Although I think that we are successfully above the $55 threshold, I want to leave a bit of buffer)
MRVL 58
JLG 46
JOYG 41
MDR 45.5
AKAM 20.5
SNDK 71
STX 20.5

Note: Every one of these stocks has a stop loss above purchase price. In fact, if the market crashes and we sold every one of these stocks at the limits, we would net 9.4%.

2 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

Would you buy AL,pcu,phm,rads,brcm,qcom ?

1:42 PM  
Blogger Andrew said...

Raju - I owe you an answer on these.

12:46 PM  

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