Monday, December 12, 2005

Other stocks

I spent some time looking at other stocks, many of them suggested by folks reading this blog.
Here are some toughts

GYI - Why didn't we get back in? GYI crashed 11% and rebounded after announcing that their sales for the year would be 0.3% lower than expected and next years sales would be 3% lower than expected. In other words they said that they expected 15% sales growth and ~57% earnings growth.
The stock rebounded strongly – closing just 2% below it’s high. And trading volume was 2X the average trading volume.
I think some of this is a bounce and frankly, I'm concerned about the sales deceleration. We want upside surprises, not downside surprises

Sunrise Senior Living (SRZ) – Primarily US based assisted living for the aged, especially those needed medical/nursing help (like alzheimers). It is the largest operator of senior living communities since it bought the Marriott’s. Our senior citizens are living longer and have a lot of wealth. Upscale assisted living facilities should do quite well, especially luxury developments. Sunrises’s recent announcement that it will build a 16 acre facility was followed by the news that 35% of the condos have already received deposits.
The Good:
PEG: 0.8
P/S: 0.9
Revenue & Earnings growth: ~25%

The Bad –
Slender margins
Debt/Equity: 0.4
However, compare this to a hotel chain like the Hilton. Debt/Equity is 1.4 and margins are comparable. I lik ethem for a long term play and would buy on weakness.

Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) – This is another winner. They make robotic surgical systems that are catching on. They are rising now based on upside expectations. They have a fine history of upside surprises and they have smashinggrowth: 78% sales y/y and 230% earnings Y/Y. They have done an excellent job of keeping SG&A flat while raising sales. But I don't like the 20 P/S. Still, this one is a contender.

Salesforce.com (CRM) – The stock price growth looks great but I don’t like the price. Even beating next year’s earnings expectations, and doubles earnings, it’s would have a forward P/E of 65 P/E. Yikes – too pricey.
Moreover, their earnings growth has been less stellar than would appear – the recent 300%+ gain included a one-time tax gain. Excluding this event, the earnings fall back in line with sales growth: ~70%. And the competition is growing....

Motorola (MOT) - Motorola’s stock price has done well this year: up 43%. Most of this is from renewed energy with it’s cell phones, especially the RAZR. I don’t like them for a few reasons:
Decelerating profit. While Revenues are growing 7%~8% sequentially, gross profit is decelerating from 10% Q3/Q2 to 5% Q4/Q3.
Me too - It is easy to copy the RAZR and Samsung et al will do so.
Flash in the pan – The iTunes phone flopped. The PEBL is also lame. Motorola does not really have a solid follow-on
If you want a semiconductor, you can do much better with Marvell.

Indian outsourcing. Is it too late or will it continue to surge? I think it will continue at a slower pace.
The big wave is ending. I have no proof for this, but I would bet that almost every Fortune 1000 company has outsourced what they can or is in the process of completing it.
The reality is that only a subset of jobs can be outsourced in a cost effective manner. There are some areas of growth, but not as substantial as offloading a billing department.
I would not write off these companies. They will find areas of growth. I just think that the bulk of opportunity has been tapped already. So no Infosys or other cousins.

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