Tuesday, December 20, 2005

Week 6 Performance. Part 1 of 3

Week 6 Performance
Broader market gain/loss: +0.69% Dow, +0.32% S&P
LIVEROCKET gain/loss: -0.5%

Year to Date Performance (since inception Nov 3rd)
Broader market gain: 2.8% Dow, 3.7% S&P
LIVEROCKET gain: 7.2%

Weekly Performance
LIVEROCKET beat Dow/S&P: 3 out of 5 weeks
Dow/S&P beat LIVEROCKET: 2 out of 5 weeks
LIVEROCKET tied Dow/S&P: 1 out of 5 weeks

Individual Stock Performance
Stock growth >20% 2 out of 14
Stock Growth >10% 1 out of 14
Stock Growth 5%~10% 3 out of 14
Stock growth 0%~5% 4 out of 11
Stock growth <0% 4 out of 11

PERFORMANCE REVIEW
In general, the last few weeks of the year is always tricky given the asset re-allocations and the lack of news.
The drop in value is attributed to 3 new stocks: ACL, JOYG, MDR. In particular, ACL has continued its dramatic slide due to a major lawsuit loss. The impact of that lawsuit is potentially $0.70 per share. That would reduce earnings ~30%, and the stock has fallen 10%+. I am extremely bothered by the lawsuit - the judgement says that Alcon deliberately committed fraud, a decision that tripled the damages to $213M. While there is room for that decision to be reversed, I am very bothered that the company would be involved in criminal behavior. I will wait to decide if we should stay.

Additionally, we have seen some sudden drops in value of select stocks over the past 2 weeks:
CERN – After rising 12%, we sold at a 5.7% gain. The stock is down 10% off its high
GILD - After rising 12%, it has dropped 10% from its high
GYI - After rising 8%, it dropped to our stop loss and we netted only 1.1%
DESC – After rising 26%, it dropped to our stop loss and we netted 8.2%. The stock has since dropped 35% from its high
PWR – After rising 13%, it dropped to our stop loss and we netted 3%.

In the face of Alcon and these other large drops, the portfolio value has dropped 2.8% from its high.
The points here are:
1. Despite dramatic rises and drops, the portfolio continues to beat the broader market. We are ahead in 10 out of 14 stocks
2. Stop losses are key. We would not have locked in many of our gains without setting limits.
3. Should we tighten the limits on the more volatile stocks? Quite possibly.

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