WHERE ARE THEY NOW?

A stock roll call is needed.
Over the past 10 weeks, many stocks have popped up in this blog either because we invested in them and got out or because I had some thoughts. Beyond our current portfolio, I have reviewed 22 stocks, out of which we invested at one point in 7. Let’s take a look at:
BMHC VDSI GYI UNH ISRG
RMD DESC WFMI USAK SRZ
CERN PWR CMTL ACL
BCSI RTLX SRCL MOT
TNH JBLU CTSH CRM

BMHC (discussed 11/7)
Bouncing around $80 since the summertime, BMHC bumped up after Hurricane Katrina. I mentioned concerns about their exposure to the housing market. They were $88 when I discussed them, now $78.

RMD (11/7)
I liked them for the revenue growth, product portfolio expansion, and immunity to cycle downturns. They were $37 when I reviewed them. After touching $42, they are down to $38. I think the price needs to get closer to $32 before buying.

CERN (11/7, 12/23)
We owned Cerner briefly (bought at $44, sold at $46.5). It peaked at $49 just before splitting and is now at $46. We had a chance to get back in, but I did not like the way the sentiment was moving against this company. I said (12/23) to wait for post split to re-visit. I like the financials and the story behind them (hospital paperwork automation), but I want to wait.

BCSI (11/7, 11/15, 11/22)
We owned BCSI twice. The first time we bought at $50 and stopped out at $45 for a loss, but immediately bought back at $39.5 and sold at $42 for a gain. They are at $41.8 and have been bouncing around $42 for some time. I like them (they are in my IRA) and with more music/TV downloads, web security is just more critical, especially solutions that don’t slow the traffic down. They are also growing their product portfolio (Permeo Technologies acquisition). Also interesting to note – they are below the 100 day Moving Average.
Worth reconsidering for the shortlist.

TNH (11/7)
The shit hit the fan for this fertilizer company. They were at $25 when I looked at them and have fallen as low as $18 before rising to ~$23. Pass.

VDSI (11/7)
A security company focusing on banking, they were at $10.5 and hit $12.5 before sagging to $10. I like them, but they are still such a small cap stock (~$350M) that most institutions are not buying them. And that is affecting the price, adding volatility. I like their story and I think that they are demonstrating a tight bottom of $10 with upside from here. (Note that they are also at the 100 day and 200 day moving averages.)
Worth reconsidering for the shortlist of stocks to buy.

DESC (11/7, 12/9)
We owned DESC, buying at $8.5 and selling at $9.2, after they peaked at $10.7. They drifted down to $7.3 before shooting up again to $8.8 because of renewed interest in alternative energy and the new year. I’d like to see renewed sales strength signals before getting in. But they have sentiment behind them and a strong trading volume.
Worth reconsidering for the shortlist of stocks to buy.

RTLX (11/7)
Another small cap company that I love but it is early. At $25 back in November, they touched $27.5 before settling into a $26 zone. They moved up after being placed on the RED HERRING 100, but it didn’t stay: daily volume is maybe 20,000 shares. This company sells $200M in product a year, is growing sales 55% Y/Y and has earnings growth of 165% Y/Y. Undiscovered, and still undiscovered.

PWR (11/7, 12/9)
Bought at $13.3, sold at $13.7. They peaked at ~$15 and then slowed down, finally triggering our stop. It’s been bouncing around $13.5. I like their story and would buy if they sag more to ~$12, because their forward P/E may be showing only slight upside.

JBLU (11/7, 11/10)
Bought at $12.3, out at $14.5. They peaked at $16.85 just before the split and have been sagging, closing down to $13.6. I still love this company and they look great while their competition is falling apart. With Southwest Airlines perfecting the short-hop part of the business, JetBlue is perfecting the long haul. It’s an interesting form of specialization that is working and more and more people are catching on. Also, I think a lot of institutional sentiment supports them. The clouds on the horizon continues to be oil.
JBLU earnings have dropped from ~$6M per quarter to ~$2M because of oil. That’s a $0.40 per share drop, and the reason JBLU stock has crashed from $20 to $13 over 16 months.
My point is – without oil, JBLU would be seeing a lowly ~20 P/E not the 90 P/E it has today. So don’t focus on the P/E, focus on the growing sales. Focus on oil, and I don’t see prices increasing dramatically.
I think the market is signaling that JetBlue is a $13 stock unless oil starts to ease up. I think Jetblue bottomed out and is at an inflection point, especially given expansion plans and possible future partnerships with overseas carriers.
I would load up on weakness.

GYI (11/7, 12/9, 12/12)
We bought at $88 and got out at $89 after it peaked at $95. Getty has been bouncing around $90. We did not get back in because Getty said that they see slowing business.

WFMI (11/7, 11/10)
We bought at $73 and got stopped out at $75 after it peaked at $80 and has settled to $73.. The peak came from a split and addition to the S&P 500. This is unfortunate because I wanted that $4 per share special dividend. I like WFMI and they have a lot of sentiment and enthusiasm behind their stock. I think that they will sag more and will want to buy back in at $70, but they are pricey.
Worth reconsidering for the shortlist of stocks to buy.

CMTL (11/15)
At $40 when we looked at them, and they peaked at $45. But CMTL missed earnings in December and crashed hard: now trading at $32. Move on.

SRCL (11/15)
At $62, they have slipped to $57. I like them and their story – medical waste is a growing business. But they have no love behind them – they will continue to drift. Move on.

CTSH (11/15)
At $46 when we looked at then, they hit $52 before settling down to $49. Everyone loves this company and their booming business, but they are fairly valued. With a forward P/E of ~35, they are at their expected earnings growth. More importantly – I see a slowdown in outsourcing from the US. Move on.

UNH (11/15)
At $60 when we looked at them, peaked at $64 before settling down to $61. I don’t see any surprises here, and that’s why I’ll move on. To repeat what I said back in November, I still don’t know what is driving their growth, so I don’t feel comfortable buying them.

USAK (11/15)
At $24 when we looked at them, they peaked at $32 before settling to $29. They are a great company and I owned them before getting stopped out. They move with oil price volatility, but they move up.
Worth reconsidering for the shortlist of stocks to buy.

ACL (12/11)
Our biggest loss. Bought at $145 and sold at $130 after a lawsuit was announced with a $271M judgment against ACL. They had peaked at $149 and have settled to $135. I think they were oversold. But the fraud bothers me and we will stay out for now.

MOT (12/12)
Was $24, and hasn’t budged. This is a majorly hyped company. Everybody loves Motorola suddenly, thanks to a vague company vision and the RAZR cell phone. I need to see more, because cell phones aren’t enough.

CRM (12/12)
Salesforce.com. Was $31, now $38. I still don’t get it. They aren’t priced for perfection – they are priced with fairy dust. And they are getting downgraded to UNDERPERFORM but continue to rise. I don’t like the story, I see competition growing, and these guys are waaaaay overpriced. Worth buying puts.

ISRG (12/12)
Was $120 and is $127, after peaking at $133. This company is a Motley Fool darling and I own them. But I think that they are priced pretty high.

SRZ (12/12)
Was $36 and now $34. they will continue to tickle $35 and slide back. I owned them in my personal portfolio before getting Stopped out. I like their story and would buy back in at $30.