Monday, November 06, 2006

Big up day before elections

The market is staging a rally before elections tomorrow. I am going to wait.

My concerns continue about the disconnect between economic realities and the market. For example, unemployment figures were MUCH LOWER than expected: 90,000 vs 125,000. That's a huge sign of a downturn, especially as we head into holiday season when hirings begin. The market shrugged it off because the earlier months' figures were revised upwards. The message being: look, things aren't slowing.

Remember, in 2001, unemployment continued to go down even as we entered the recession. Unemployment is a lagging figure and the latest figures show a downward trend.

Ask yourself the following question: if the economy is doing so well and expected to do well, why is Walmart already taking aggressive moves to drum up sales?
Another indicator of the market buying the hype and ignoring the realities: Walmart announced major price cuts in the electronics zone, so why aren't Radioshack, Best Buy or Circuit City stocks under pressure? After all, any price war pressures margins.

Something is driving this market up and economic realities will drive it right back down.

I am halfway through a massive stock review, stay tuned.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

OMG! Whats going on..even if we bought y'day and sold today, we would've probably gained 5%. Andrew, did we miss it?

11:09 AM  

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