Quick bits
I will post the weekly review later this evening (including new STOPs). In the meantime
1. Economy heading for problems sooner than I expected. The GDP was a lot lower than I expected and lower than what I feel is a growing economy. That plus today's consumer spending numbers points to a slowdown sooner than I thought. I was thinking next Spring we'd see the signs. This pulls in the recession a lot sooner: I was thinking early 2008 but now I see late 2007. I base this off the fact that the housing effect has only just begun.
I don't see stagflation in the cards - inflation is still very moderate by historical terms. I do see deflation over the next 2 quarters as housing prices continue to drop and a slowdown works its way through the economy.
2. Oil is still bouncing around the low levels. An economic slowdown typically translates into less fuel consumption. And that means lower fuel prices. Not likely: the China/India genie is out of the bottle. Their surging demand will make up for any shortfalls in the US.
3. Semiconductors are not rebounding as I thought. We were stopped out of ISIL and that's ok. I thought there would finally be some sector rotation, but I am not sure now.
4. Could be a good time to consider bonds in anticipation of
1. Economy heading for problems sooner than I expected. The GDP was a lot lower than I expected and lower than what I feel is a growing economy. That plus today's consumer spending numbers points to a slowdown sooner than I thought. I was thinking next Spring we'd see the signs. This pulls in the recession a lot sooner: I was thinking early 2008 but now I see late 2007. I base this off the fact that the housing effect has only just begun.
I don't see stagflation in the cards - inflation is still very moderate by historical terms. I do see deflation over the next 2 quarters as housing prices continue to drop and a slowdown works its way through the economy.
2. Oil is still bouncing around the low levels. An economic slowdown typically translates into less fuel consumption. And that means lower fuel prices. Not likely: the China/India genie is out of the bottle. Their surging demand will make up for any shortfalls in the US.
3. Semiconductors are not rebounding as I thought. We were stopped out of ISIL and that's ok. I thought there would finally be some sector rotation, but I am not sure now.
4. Could be a good time to consider bonds in anticipation of
posted by Andrew at
7:48 AM
2 Comments:
TIE just reported and appears to have missed the numbers.. any insights will be helpful..
thanks
TIE is down > 4% in after hours. I believe they still showed quite strong results. It'll be interesting to watch it in coming days.
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