Why I bought today
I believe that the economy is strong and that we witnessed a sell-off driven by Bernanke (for reasons I won't bother going into at the moment).
I believe that with any sell-off, we see over selling, panic and fear-based selling. The only question was timing the re-entry. I had pulled the trigger early, ~3 weeks ago. I watched growth stocks become value stocks.
I believe that several triggers would at the minimum create a floor and possibly even drive stock prices back up
* Earnings season
* Strong results as indicated directly by early announcements (Lehman Bros, Circuit City, TRN) and by the utter lack of negative guidance (outside of housing companies)
* Money managers positioning for the next quarter
* Acceptance of Fed direction and impact
* Weak hands shaken out, no more selling
* Option day expired
Last week we saw some up days, and that was an indication of a bottom. On Monday I saw some slumping but also some select stocks beginning to advance. I wanted to wait for the Housing report, which was fairly positive.
I considered buying yesterday but I wanted to see how the day would end. I wanted to see more strength.
I bought at market opening and it turned out that today was an up day.
To the suggestion that I should have bought on a down day, I totally agree. But that applies in a normal market. When the market has been down for 35 trading days, who is to say that it won't be down the 36th? TIE hit 30 and I thought that was a great day to buy, and then it went down to 28. After throwing away money on stocks that continued to go down, I preferred to wait for signals of the bottom.
Coincidentally, I jumped in when everyone else decided to do so as well. Except that I jumped in first thing this morning and made a little bit more money than the rest of the herd.
After buying in, the portfolio yielded an additional 2.3% today.
The key for me is that this feels like we have bottomed and will be rising from here. Maybe there was an additional 1 or 2% had I bought yesterday or one day last week on the worst day of all. I pulled the trigger today because the market was heading up based on the last few days activity. I got tired buying when the market was heading down.
Meanwhile, I own a buttload of TRID stock and options.
I believe that with any sell-off, we see over selling, panic and fear-based selling. The only question was timing the re-entry. I had pulled the trigger early, ~3 weeks ago. I watched growth stocks become value stocks.
I believe that several triggers would at the minimum create a floor and possibly even drive stock prices back up
* Earnings season
* Strong results as indicated directly by early announcements (Lehman Bros, Circuit City, TRN) and by the utter lack of negative guidance (outside of housing companies)
* Money managers positioning for the next quarter
* Acceptance of Fed direction and impact
* Weak hands shaken out, no more selling
* Option day expired
Last week we saw some up days, and that was an indication of a bottom. On Monday I saw some slumping but also some select stocks beginning to advance. I wanted to wait for the Housing report, which was fairly positive.
I considered buying yesterday but I wanted to see how the day would end. I wanted to see more strength.
I bought at market opening and it turned out that today was an up day.
To the suggestion that I should have bought on a down day, I totally agree. But that applies in a normal market. When the market has been down for 35 trading days, who is to say that it won't be down the 36th? TIE hit 30 and I thought that was a great day to buy, and then it went down to 28. After throwing away money on stocks that continued to go down, I preferred to wait for signals of the bottom.
Coincidentally, I jumped in when everyone else decided to do so as well. Except that I jumped in first thing this morning and made a little bit more money than the rest of the herd.
After buying in, the portfolio yielded an additional 2.3% today.
The key for me is that this feels like we have bottomed and will be rising from here. Maybe there was an additional 1 or 2% had I bought yesterday or one day last week on the worst day of all. I pulled the trigger today because the market was heading up based on the last few days activity. I got tired buying when the market was heading down.
Meanwhile, I own a buttload of TRID stock and options.
posted by Andrew at
3:59 PM
2 Comments:
Change in 20 days for symbol VOL is 58.74 %. What would be your sell target price?
VOL released spectacular earnings June 8th. Since that time, volume has been very strong. I previously mentioned that I wanted to find a stock benefitting from the employment levels. MNST was not it. VOL is showing it's ability.
This is a very short term move, dependent on a strong economy.
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