Is It Over??
It's no surprise that Bernanke said nothing yesterday to calm the markets. He is waiting for today's inflation reports. The Nikkei plunged 4.4% as fear based selling continues.
But inflation is mild, and Best Buy is announcing good news.
Nevertheless, I don't think the markets care. First, they want a clear signal. Bernanke's tough love has not won him any fans. Second, deeper than expected cracks are appearing in the housing market. Hovnavian announced that cancellations are much higher than expected. They walked away from $5M+ in deposits on options to buy property.
The fundamentals of the market are strong. They really are. But the stock market is spooked and money is not going to suddenly flow in, imho. Far too many investors have been burned by the recent plunge for them to rush back in.
One way to play this is to sellwhenever a 5% gain can be locked in, and set a 5% STOP.
I see signs that we are bottoming, not that we have bottomed. I won't get in until I see us bottomed.
But inflation is mild, and Best Buy is announcing good news.
Nevertheless, I don't think the markets care. First, they want a clear signal. Bernanke's tough love has not won him any fans. Second, deeper than expected cracks are appearing in the housing market. Hovnavian announced that cancellations are much higher than expected. They walked away from $5M+ in deposits on options to buy property.
The fundamentals of the market are strong. They really are. But the stock market is spooked and money is not going to suddenly flow in, imho. Far too many investors have been burned by the recent plunge for them to rush back in.
One way to play this is to sellwhenever a 5% gain can be locked in, and set a 5% STOP.
I see signs that we are bottoming, not that we have bottomed. I won't get in until I see us bottomed.
posted by Andrew at
7:21 AM
3 Comments:
Andrew, Do you think its over now? With the relatively modest gains over the past two days?
Liverocket is waiting till June 29th to decide whether to go long or not ?
The gains over the last week may or may not hold, but I think that they are signs of money trickling back.
We may teeter up and down, but I think we are probably still 5% oversold. So my pivot point for a trading range is another 5% up from here.
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