Monday, June 12, 2006

Why the market keeps dropping

Another day of heavy losses.

If this were truly inflation related fears, then the worst would already be factored in after a 8% DOW correction and a 13% NASDAQ correction.
There isn't even an external shock like a Hurricane Katrina.

Something else is going on. This is more than just an ordinary correction where stocks that have had a great run-up get pulled back. Far too many stocks are below the 200 day moving average.

Consider oil stocks. Oil consumption is not going down, recession or not. Global demand is simply too high and alternatives don't exist and won't exist for 3~5 years. Nevertheless, prices for oil equipment (GRP, JOYG, DO, ESV) are down dramatically.

There are no buyers at this time. There isn't a flight to value - every market and every industry is being hit. technical levels are being ignored. Analysts - as usual - are quiet and not willing to step in and make any predictions. Everyone is heading to the door and not looking back.
In short, nobody knows what is going on.

Today could be because of last minute jitters before the inflation reports come out. But today is just a blip within the broader context.
Here's the thing: if inflation data comes out positive, the markets rebound a bit and the short sellers could get surprised on Friday, which is an options day.
If the news is negative, look for more price deflation.

I do believe that consumer spending is strong - Best Buy will release numbers to show that.

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