Monday, January 23, 2006

Texas Instruments - Good news for us

Remember back in the 1990s when companies like Cisco would show 100% growth and the stock would fall? I feel that in many ways we are revisiting those times.

THE QUARTERLY FACTS
Texas Instruments
Sales growth: 14%
Earnings growth 34%
Margin Growth: Gross profit up from 42% to 48%

ONLY POSITIVE NEWS
"Chief Financial Officer Kevin March said fourth-quarter revenue was held back because the company was unable to meet customer demand due to slow delivery and assembly of chip testing equipment." (Source: AP)
Unable to meet demand because of tight inventories. Demand is strong. I like investing in sectors where demand is strong for the products.

WHY THIS MATTERS
1. Improving margins at semi companies: I said it before - margins are increasing at semiconductor companies. We saw it at Seagate, we're seeing it at TXN.
2. Confirms Book-to-bill expectations: demand is outstripping supply. This is the best place to be for investors in semiconductor companies.
3. TXN's loss could be MARVELL's (MRVL) gain - MRVL and TXN products do not really overlap. But concerns over ability to meet demand can drives customers to look at other sources.
4. MRVL Sales - I expect MRVL will exceed sales, earnings, and margin expectations.

IMMEDIATE TERM
It is hard to predict. Semi stocks might actually go down out of misplaced fears that business is bad because TXN 'disappointed'. If so, that is a major buy opportunity. I expect MRVL to go up another $5 over the next month.

1 Comments:

Anonymous Anonymous said...

I hope you had a stop loss for ntri.it's now 37..May I know your opinion on xom/vlo/oih/hal/slb..if they are a good buy sometime tomorrow after they go down further..Thx

10:40 AM  

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