Liverocket doing great!
Although I have shifted to a monthly performance review, I couldn't help but peek at the weekly results. We are down 4% against the background of a broader market that is down 15%.
A lot of this could be due to July 4th weekend and a short week. It would be nice to see the markets erode further and boost our short positions.
THE LONGS
With the major coal pullback, I ready to jump in. Got my picks ready.
DSX - I decided to take the loss. My analysis said that $30 was the resistance point and when it blew past it and down more, I preferred to take the hit and maybe get back in. Sure enough, it fell another $1 Friday. I like this company, so will look for a cheaper buy-in point.
DUG - Even with gas going up, DUG rises on strong volume. The broader market is starting to doubt oil's continued rise.
ETFC - Climbing back as I expected. It was up on large volume too.
MUR - Oil and coal had a crazy week. MUR raced up to $101 and fell back to $94.
TRID - Nice article in Barron's (http://ceoblogger.wordpress.com/2008/07/03/barrons-analyst-says-the-timing-is-right-for-trident-microsystems-trid/)
Nothing new said there: the article points out that the stock was trading for cash.
However, the timing was interesting - a bullish article before earnings. Someone must need their stock to move.
THE SHORTS
Honestly speaking, things are crashing faster than I expected. That means faster gains
AGN - Time is running out: 2 weeks to go. It keeps bouncing around $52, so I am going to not be greedy and close out the position this week. Closing in on 75% return.
AN - Fell below $9 on heavy volume. Even the Fool noted the bad performance. http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2008/06/30/buffett-and-lampert-miss-the-boat.aspx
We paid $0.90 per option and are $1.02 in the money with 6 months to go. Closing in on 100% return.
HOG - This stock has a lot of resilience. I expected that they would crash like Ford and GM, but not at all. They have been bouncing between $35 and $40 for some time. But the trend line is currently pointing down for now. A bad quarter will drop them hard and put us in the money.
MGM - Wow. I am surprised by the drop. A huge drop on Friday on major volume (3X the normal). In any case, we are below the $30 threshold that I expected to see. MGM is struggling in a classic case of doubling down at the wrong time. But they can always sell off a casino if needed. I am putting a sell order to close the puts if they hit $25
This has been a solid grand slam homerun: 600%+ profit
NKE - A lot of puzzled people are wondering why NKE is drifting below $60. Personally, I think the Olympics will be a bust for them. In the meantime, I see gross margin weakness from inventory buildup. In any case, I'd like to breakeven here.
VMC - From the 80s to the 50s in 1 month. This is testimony to keeping the faith and sticking to our investment thesis. We are breakeven and I could see a better return with 1 or 2 bad quarters.
ZLC - Nice week: from $21 to $18. The story here is that Zales is telling fund managers that they can maintain sales and profits by pushing silver and other cheaper jewelry. After all, $200 doesn't buy much gold.
The problem with this thesis is that it assumes that consumer disposable spending won't drop. It will. This is a put we will likely have to hold until January.
A lot of this could be due to July 4th weekend and a short week. It would be nice to see the markets erode further and boost our short positions.
THE LONGS
With the major coal pullback, I ready to jump in. Got my picks ready.
DSX - I decided to take the loss. My analysis said that $30 was the resistance point and when it blew past it and down more, I preferred to take the hit and maybe get back in. Sure enough, it fell another $1 Friday. I like this company, so will look for a cheaper buy-in point.
DUG - Even with gas going up, DUG rises on strong volume. The broader market is starting to doubt oil's continued rise.
ETFC - Climbing back as I expected. It was up on large volume too.
MUR - Oil and coal had a crazy week. MUR raced up to $101 and fell back to $94.
TRID - Nice article in Barron's (http://ceoblogger.wordpress.com/2008/07/03/barrons-analyst-says-the-timing-is-right-for-trident-microsystems-trid/)
Nothing new said there: the article points out that the stock was trading for cash.
However, the timing was interesting - a bullish article before earnings. Someone must need their stock to move.
THE SHORTS
Honestly speaking, things are crashing faster than I expected. That means faster gains
AGN - Time is running out: 2 weeks to go. It keeps bouncing around $52, so I am going to not be greedy and close out the position this week. Closing in on 75% return.
AN - Fell below $9 on heavy volume. Even the Fool noted the bad performance. http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2008/06/30/buffett-and-lampert-miss-the-boat.aspx
We paid $0.90 per option and are $1.02 in the money with 6 months to go. Closing in on 100% return.
HOG - This stock has a lot of resilience. I expected that they would crash like Ford and GM, but not at all. They have been bouncing between $35 and $40 for some time. But the trend line is currently pointing down for now. A bad quarter will drop them hard and put us in the money.
MGM - Wow. I am surprised by the drop. A huge drop on Friday on major volume (3X the normal). In any case, we are below the $30 threshold that I expected to see. MGM is struggling in a classic case of doubling down at the wrong time. But they can always sell off a casino if needed. I am putting a sell order to close the puts if they hit $25
This has been a solid grand slam homerun: 600%+ profit
NKE - A lot of puzzled people are wondering why NKE is drifting below $60. Personally, I think the Olympics will be a bust for them. In the meantime, I see gross margin weakness from inventory buildup. In any case, I'd like to breakeven here.
VMC - From the 80s to the 50s in 1 month. This is testimony to keeping the faith and sticking to our investment thesis. We are breakeven and I could see a better return with 1 or 2 bad quarters.
ZLC - Nice week: from $21 to $18. The story here is that Zales is telling fund managers that they can maintain sales and profits by pushing silver and other cheaper jewelry. After all, $200 doesn't buy much gold.
The problem with this thesis is that it assumes that consumer disposable spending won't drop. It will. This is a put we will likely have to hold until January.
posted by Andrew at
4:38 PM
4 Comments:
Thanks Andrew for the update. I also think coal companies look attractive now. Can you share your picks?
article on tv prices sliding...
http://seekingalpha.com/article/83279-tv-price-chopping-as-sales-slide
Is it time to sell AN puts yet?
Can you please share your thoughts on why you are bullish on coal?
Regards.
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