Tuesday, July 01, 2008

Did we just miss an opportunity to close some puts?

The market was crashing and I was getting pretty excited. AN had fallen to $9.50, for example.
Now it looks like a rebound in the making.

Did we miss out? I hope not. Definitely the stocks underlying the puts were much lower than they closed, but overall they still ended down. Better yet, we see weakness and that's a good thing.

Near term puts are mixed. MGM (expires September or 2.5 months) sank to $30 before closing down to $32. AGN (expires in 2.5 weeks) actually rose but the weakness and potential for a drop translated into a slightly better put value.

The longer term puts look tasty as well
AN - dropped under $10 and moved the put up $0.25 (56% potential gain)
HOG - Rose a fraction but the puts are flat and we are still negative
NKE - A little up for us, but still negative
VMC - Stock dropped to $58 and the put is now 15% in the money
ZLC - Almost breakeven

Most of the stocks we are shorting fell pretty hard before recovering, so I think that, given time and weak earnings, they will see those levels and lower.
Right now we are looking good on AN, VMC and ZLC
HOG and NKE need a 10% stock drop for us to get breakeven or more

Volatility is our friend because of the implied potential of th eputs to be in th emoney.

0 Comments:

Post a Comment

Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]

<< Home