Friday, June 20, 2008

Don't sell those puts

Great day to be short - and a lot of this is simply because it's options expiration Friday. There is no short squeeze in a market that has seen the Dow drop 1000 points in 1 month. Nothing to prop up prices.

Which means prices could rebound a bit in the next 2 weeks - and AGN puts expire in 4 weeks.

I think we sit tight and hope for another 5% drop in the stock prices underlying our puts.

MGM - I think the deep decline suggests further weakness. Sell the put when it hits $35? (a ~$3 investment and a $15 return)
AN - looks like another breakdown. It is also showing definite weakness

VMC - not getting low enough, fast enough

ZLC/HOG/NKE - what is up with these consumer stocks? Why won't they crash harder? Sadly, we need a 15% pullback on these in 3 months just to return to breakeven.

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