Thursday, March 20, 2008

Nike Does well

My premise with Nike was that the would start to see problems
1. US market weakness - both from slower consumer spending and from competition (CROCS and UA).
2. Problems from the weak dollar reducing US margins

I was correct: US sales are slow - up 5% and probably slipping to 1% next quarter.

I saw only margins squeezed in the US and I discounted overseas sales too much. Growth is indeed slowing but sales in Euros translates into higher dollars and thatis outweighing the US slowdown.
Exchange rates added $140M in profit from Europe, $40M from Asia, and $20M from Latin America.

Nike had $350M in profit last year and $464M in profit this year. Netting out the exchange rate, that's actually a drop of almost 30% in profit.

I am concerned - this trend will continue at least into the Fall. I suggest we exit these PUTs at the next crash.

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