Sunday, March 16, 2008

LiveRocket 3 Week Performance - Down 8.5%



No doubt abpout it, a horrible 3 weeks. The main cause was my not applying STOPs sooner and not buying PUTs sooner. I sought to correct that by holding on thru earnings because a few stocks I see bouncing up hard.

Nevertheless, I will definitely recover by aggressive trading. So there will be several moves each week, I expect. Normally I would go for some automatic trading, but this market is too volatile for that. SoI am planning on trading the volatility.

I want to buy CF calls - perhaps the April $125. MVL as well.

The big curveball is the interest rates. The Fed will lower rates Tuesday, and the Market will like it.

For the most part, I am not very worried - we have long term puts. But for buying in, I want to be careful. My goal is to average 5% per month on these options. On a big down day, I will look to sell my puts and buy calls. And vice versa on up days.

In general, I believe that PUTs should be overweighted for a while. many think this market is oversold, and I don't think so. maybe when it hits 11,500 - it might pause again. The direction is obvious but the timing isn't, so I need to move carefully and lock in gains where appropriate.

I do believe that there are some stocks to go long. Agriculture and chemicals in particular.

Put choices are all over: BBBY, Pier One. BBY in particular ($30 Jan 09 Puts). I will keepa strong cash position to move quickly (I really do see a lot of 5% swings as we head into earnings season)

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