Up day Today? May sell out some puts or buy more
Both Goldman and Lehman Brothers reported a fall in earnings.
Goldman beat expectations, whatever that means. Expectations were dropped from $5.64 just 90 days ago to $2.60. Lower that bar far enough and anyone can beat expectations.
Lehman reported weakness in bonds but strength in M&A. They had a wild ride yesterday, swinging down to $20 and back up to $31.
I like that M&A comment. I'd like to think that some big deals are heading our way.
Then today the Fed will be doing something spectacular with the interest rate. I'd love to see a curve ball - maybe no change to the rate. Markets will rise if the Fed drops 1% and they will be mighty pissed off if it drops only 0.25%.
I expect a sizeable drop followed by drops in Europe. Yes, Europe is facing inflation as well, but they will have to follow the US. This is to forestall any slowdown as well as to protect the dollar.
Goldman beat expectations, whatever that means. Expectations were dropped from $5.64 just 90 days ago to $2.60. Lower that bar far enough and anyone can beat expectations.
Lehman reported weakness in bonds but strength in M&A. They had a wild ride yesterday, swinging down to $20 and back up to $31.
I like that M&A comment. I'd like to think that some big deals are heading our way.
Then today the Fed will be doing something spectacular with the interest rate. I'd love to see a curve ball - maybe no change to the rate. Markets will rise if the Fed drops 1% and they will be mighty pissed off if it drops only 0.25%.
I expect a sizeable drop followed by drops in Europe. Yes, Europe is facing inflation as well, but they will have to follow the US. This is to forestall any slowdown as well as to protect the dollar.
posted by Andrew at
6:02 AM
7 Comments:
Is it a good time to buy LEH Jan 30 puts? right now its at 6.10, I am planning to get some 10 for 5.90 if possible..what do you think? Wait for couple of more days?
Thanks!
I would have to see their earnings detail before commenting.
Overall, I think that LEH is probably still one of the most exposed to the housing bust and I doubt that they are coming clean.
In general, I think the market is heading back up a bit to a false bottom before crashing again hard.
I see these surges as opportunities to buy puts, but I think this one will surge a bit more. I'm thinking Dow 12,500 and then a drop
Thanks for your comments. I am including another 200 pt up in asking price to 5.50, not that I would get, but just put an order so, if it hits, I will take it ;)
I am waiting to load up SKF or SRS too. may be in a day or two..
Well, didnt get the puts. But, bought more QID, SKF and SRS. As far as the Visa concerned, I am not sure what to do, may be get up early morning and buy 100 and let whatever happens. Thoughts?
Tomorrow is an option expiry day so today’s rally was on the expected lines.Friday is holiday ...So Monday onwards we will get an actual picture whether this rally will hold or bust. Fed is left with not many bullets now...so this might be a second last chance for hedge funds and big players to rally the market and take some profit. So anything can happen in the next 2 weeks.
Where do you think the market will go? I think it might end up down 200pts or close to it. If I get 10% of all the shorts, I am cashing in :)
Even though market gives back 300 pts, all the ultrashorts are barely moving :((
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