False Rally Continues
Do not mistake this for anything except a pre-earnings move up, with a touch of the Fed juicing the market.
It is short term (measureable in weeks) and will sucker money in before crashing below 11,400 by the Summer.
The good news is really not good news - it's more like saying the compound fracture is only 8 breaks not 9. It doesn't matter: the patient isn't walking anytime soon.
* Manufacturing is down
* Housing is down. The Fed doesn't have enough money (it needs $3T) to buy all the dud loans and derivatives
* Cash is scarce.
* Unemployment is rising and will continue to rise.
* Retailers are struggling. The consumer is tired
I don't think a $1,200 check is quite enough to forget all of these woes.
Yes, our puts are down, but I'm not worried. Plenty of time
It is short term (measureable in weeks) and will sucker money in before crashing below 11,400 by the Summer.
The good news is really not good news - it's more like saying the compound fracture is only 8 breaks not 9. It doesn't matter: the patient isn't walking anytime soon.
Excited that Bear Sterns is worth a lot more than $2? Maybe even $10? Tell that to folks who bought it 2 months ago at $80 or 2 weeks ago at $30.
Keep perspective.
* Manufacturing is down
* Housing is down. The Fed doesn't have enough money (it needs $3T) to buy all the dud loans and derivatives
* Cash is scarce.
* Unemployment is rising and will continue to rise.
* Retailers are struggling. The consumer is tired
I don't think a $1,200 check is quite enough to forget all of these woes.
Yes, our puts are down, but I'm not worried. Plenty of time
posted by Andrew at
8:44 AM
3 Comments:
Hi Andrew,
I was reading over the weekend, which actually scares shi** out my ultrashorts. Here is the analysis:
The dow tested briefly under 12,000 in January and again in March when it bounced off the long term resistance of 11,700. Between the two lows the dow reached 12,750. (approx.)
If the dow tests 12,750 and goes above it for more than a day, it's a VERY strong double-bottom buy signal and the stock market is going to fly.
I am not sure, if that trend is right, but sure seems right from TA.
There is nothing behind this rally. Every company is going to report lower sales and lower margins.
This is a sucker's rally that may last 3 weeks, but it will fade once the numbers come in: Q1 GDP, employment, etc
3 weeks rally ? at this rate Dow will be @15000 by April 2nd week. I have some longs I will sell it with 25% profit and buy puts:-)
Surprisingly now no one is talking about recession and all are bullish. Volumes are high even against bad news. It’s wise to research on some short term buys?
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